{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfbc8053-6959-482d-983a-11ea807ce5b8", "symbol": "TOM2", "name": "TomTom N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.419, "architecture_energy": 85.188, "architecture_maturity": 53.845, "architecture_confidence": 85.293, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.02, "rotation_up": 8.1, "upward_expansion": 20.66, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 80.49, "downward_expansion": 96.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.939333, 4.2256, 4.488638, 4.591144 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.02, "trend_reference": 4.861333, "distance_from_trend": -0.173066, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.480795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.26653, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.284313, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.222437, "excess_performance": -0.396684, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173066, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060134, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.26653, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111705, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.362843, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.222437, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186353, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.186353, "dry_up": 2.362753, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082549, "annualized_volatility": 0.385275, "from_high_reference": -0.424893, "from_low_reference": 0.159838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.861333, "fair_value_reference": 5.480795, "structural_low": 3.466, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.025488, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.005047, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.238869, "worst_return": -0.185933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.034828, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.075674, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.159366, "worst_return": -0.115652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059287, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02189, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.344094, "worst_return": -0.085512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140856, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153442, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036503, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013487, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015785, "active": false }, { 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"energy": 23.675518, "activity_lines": [ 4.823867, 4.893073, 4.796867, 4.919768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.614, "volume": 2197, "typical_volume": 1037.15, "trend": 5.107233, "fair_value": 5.580006, "relative_strength": -28.143563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.426602, "energy": 39.613649, "activity_lines": [ 4.719067, 4.844582, 4.781186, 4.886417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.16, "volume": 12632, "typical_volume": 1668.75, "trend": 5.073233, "fair_value": 5.557058, "relative_strength": -33.281095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.858991, "energy": 69.522726, "activity_lines": [ 4.507333, 4.713036, 4.725271, 4.825305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.536, "volume": 3497, "typical_volume": 1843.6, "trend": 5.013933, "fair_value": 5.528667, "relative_strength": -43.436694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.789913, "energy": 91.468121, "activity_lines": [ 4.154933, 4.480109, 4.615, 4.726129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.862, "volume": 2455, "typical_volume": 1966.35, "trend": 4.960333, "fair_value": 5.502846, "relative_strength": -37.554246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.797567, "energy": 87.939694, "activity_lines": [ 3.996933, 4.328855, 4.542214, 4.651811 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.02, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1966.35, "trend": 4.861333, "fair_value": 5.480795, "relative_strength": -36.284313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.418884, "energy": 85.187889, "activity_lines": [ 3.939333, 4.2256, 4.488638, 4.591144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }