{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfc3dec5-a1c2-4395-99a7-2574d89aaddd", "symbol": "002106", "name": "Shenzhen Laibao Hi-Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 73.134, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.582, "architecture_energy": 37.294, "architecture_maturity": 15.008, "architecture_confidence": 62.944, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.05, "rotation_up": 16.74, "upward_expansion": 19.31, "deceleration": 63.96, "rotation_down": 68.89, "downward_expansion": 44.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.157333, 11.372919, 11.612544, 11.591191 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.64, "trend_reference": 11.590198, "distance_from_trend": -0.081983, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.330133, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029996, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.176531, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.103623, "excess_performance": -0.111022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081983, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037725, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029996, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064795, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101765, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097041, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103623, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.205578, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117255175, "relative_activity": 1.191887, "balance": 1.205578, "dry_up": 1.278743, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149929, "annualized_volatility": 0.621912, "from_high_reference": -0.322293, "from_low_reference": 0.182222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.590198, "fair_value_reference": 10.330133, "structural_low": 9.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.030287, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.025369, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.209243, "worst_return": -0.152128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.073589, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.033364, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.38482, "worst_return": -0.177896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.250713, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.071214, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.308401, "worst_return": -0.071087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135434, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083029, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073693, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12275, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"up", "direction": 14.217447, "energy": 14.536325, "activity_lines": [ 12.420667, 12.703917, 12.09882, 11.921917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.34, "volume": 129229310, "typical_volume": 98773653.1, "trend": 11.639198, "fair_value": 10.308539, "relative_strength": -18.920838, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.438475, "energy": 30.110512, "activity_lines": [ 11.129333, 12.126997, 11.866601, 11.77055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.82, "volume": 108136047, "typical_volume": 98574293.15, "trend": 11.600865, "fair_value": 10.316305, "relative_strength": -13.048299, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.229431, "energy": 39.697688, "activity_lines": [ 10.313333, 11.661724, 11.693811, 11.653182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.64, "volume": 117255175, "typical_volume": 98377734.4, "trend": 11.590198, "fair_value": 10.330133, "relative_strength": -10.176531, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.582405, "energy": 37.29448, "activity_lines": [ 10.157333, 11.372919, 11.612544, 11.591191 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }