{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfc86aae-9dd3-47a3-9f4a-5db8e689c524", "symbol": "PRSU", "name": "Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.546, "architecture_energy": 28.935, "architecture_maturity": 94.812, "architecture_confidence": 85.379, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.12, "rotation_up": 29.11, "upward_expansion": 65.68, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 30.48, "downward_expansion": 20.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.782, 51.119636, 48.713857, 46.03271 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.67, "trend_reference": 42.577, "distance_from_trend": 0.072645, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.933718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270951, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.629184, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.218192, "excess_performance": 0.092567, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072645, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149539, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026773, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036292, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054303, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.218192, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.007035, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1249303, "relative_activity": 1.027049, "balance": 1.007035, "dry_up": 0.975051, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080819, "annualized_volatility": 0.346291, "from_high_reference": -0.191896, "from_low_reference": 0.425851 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.577, "fair_value_reference": 35.933718, "structural_low": 32.405, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.01432, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.029507, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.195083, "worst_return": -0.151746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.051055, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.052066, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.285991, "worst_return": -0.258729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.129197, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.186106, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149002, "worst_return": -0.429651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.172092, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.306782, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.191458, "worst_return": -0.4477, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033723, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.215459, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082942, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109015, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042257, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.160819, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104757, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107716, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.107454, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.055701, "energy": 89.250903, "activity_lines": [ 53.661333, 50.490545, 46.410429, 43.702624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.15, "volume": 1630140, "typical_volume": 1249066.45, "trend": 41.03, "fair_value": 35.525577, "relative_strength": 27.402213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.109671, "energy": 86.257915, "activity_lines": [ 53.851333, 51.426364, 47.371524, 44.523505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.04, "volume": 797907, "typical_volume": 1231876.0, "trend": 41.623333, "fair_value": 35.681538, "relative_strength": 24.619813, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.713112, "energy": 65.162479, "activity_lines": [ 53.325333, 51.963455, 48.139333, 45.233828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.53, "volume": 1066861, "typical_volume": 1223836.25, "trend": 42.194, "fair_value": 35.819167, "relative_strength": 18.822241, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.136357, "energy": 54.14656, "activity_lines": [ 52.222667, 52.039818, 48.691952, 45.808452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.67, "volume": 1249303, "typical_volume": 1216401.05, "trend": 42.577, "fair_value": 35.933718, "relative_strength": 3.629184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.546461, "energy": 28.934802, "activity_lines": [ 49.782, 51.119636, 48.713857, 46.03271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }