{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfcb925b-920c-4248-a011-d6c8d333f336", "symbol": "KLDVK", "name": "Kaldvik AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 57.275, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 9.589, "architecture_energy": 11.911, "architecture_maturity": 21.278, "architecture_confidence": 42.144, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.8, "rotation_up": 29.65, "upward_expansion": 43.56, "deceleration": 40.98, "rotation_down": 26.52, "downward_expansion": 35.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.1, 5.091455, 4.809571, 4.762753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.2, "trend_reference": 5.107, "distance_from_trend": 0.01821, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.796538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.723353, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.005588, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.218045, "excess_performance": -0.343039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01821, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229984, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.723353, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102768, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.420056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.281154, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218045, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.793148, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42369, "relative_activity": 0.098167, "balance": 7.793148, "dry_up": 0.120338, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129586, "annualized_volatility": 0.82874, "from_high_reference": -0.633803, "from_low_reference": 0.733333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.107, "fair_value_reference": 18.796538, "structural_low": 3.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.007519, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.027959, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.106557, "worst_return": -0.124138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.047101, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.069389, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.112, "worst_return": -0.319549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.068966, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.144614, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.090226, "worst_return": -0.488889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.194066, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.275802, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.015038, "worst_return": -0.761111, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037879, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106557, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.225, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050725, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070968, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06087, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.773636, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048387, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 26.200001, "volume": 20932, "typical_volume": 19653.35, "trend": 28.043261, "fair_value": 35.453287, "relative_strength": -7.173435, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", 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"direction": -2.668618, "energy": 15.529654, "activity_lines": [ 5.035333, 4.777091, 4.495381, 4.881677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.2, "volume": 118385, "typical_volume": 467386.0, "trend": 5.615333, "fair_value": 19.392692, "relative_strength": -45.216504, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.285656, "energy": 13.914318, "activity_lines": [ 5.089333, 4.914727, 4.564619, 4.84671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.2, "volume": 63830, "typical_volume": 462778.7, "trend": 5.492, "fair_value": 19.249103, "relative_strength": -44.516248, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.2092, "energy": 13.556802, "activity_lines": [ 5.143333, 5.019636, 4.638381, 4.819914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.1, "volume": 55419, "typical_volume": 458494.1, "trend": 5.362, "fair_value": 19.090769, "relative_strength": -45.521806, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.790385, "energy": 13.317458, "activity_lines": [ 5.144, 5.077273, 4.70081, 4.794624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.9, "volume": 46135, "typical_volume": 447103.05, "trend": 5.232, "fair_value": 18.942692, "relative_strength": -46.572889, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.249995, "energy": 10.568994, "activity_lines": [ 5.07, 5.065818, 4.742286, 4.764817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2, "volume": 42369, "typical_volume": 431601.3, "trend": 5.107, "fair_value": 18.796538, "relative_strength": -42.005588, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.589411, "energy": 11.910528, "activity_lines": [ 5.1, 5.091455, 4.809571, 4.762753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }