{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfcef554-dfff-4d63-a51a-a9d46df4c99e", "symbol": "VOWI", "name": "Volkswagen AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.535, "architecture_energy": 62.141, "architecture_maturity": 69.393, "architecture_confidence": 92.751, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.97, "rotation_up": 26.52, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 57.3, "rotation_down": 55.66, "downward_expansion": 85.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.363331, 76.056885, 79.432636, 82.603622 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 77.099998, "trend_reference": 87.719936, "distance_from_trend": -0.121066, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 92.170001, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.163502, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.121504, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234359, "excess_performance": -0.408606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121066, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088229, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.163502, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069415, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234359, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.027778, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150, "relative_activity": 4.966887, "balance": 1.027778, "dry_up": 2.061258, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043733, "annualized_volatility": 0.265268, "from_high_reference": -0.300997, "from_low_reference": 0.06639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.719936, "fair_value_reference": 92.170001, "structural_low": 72.300003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055363, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.090148, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.066364, "worst_return": -0.142596, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.144215, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.347341, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.144215, "worst_return": -0.144215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 74.754948, "activity_lines": [ 74.539998, 76.352161, 79.964294, 83.348564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.099998, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 30.2, "trend": 87.719936, "fair_value": 92.170001, "relative_strength": -33.121504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.534804, "energy": 62.141344, "activity_lines": [ 75.363331, 76.056885, 79.432636, 82.603622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }