{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfd7ff0e-55a4-4f5b-8ca9-7860fc12f7b8", "symbol": "300388", "name": "CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.122, "architecture_energy": 48.189, "architecture_maturity": 84.711, "architecture_confidence": 82.323, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.98, "rotation_up": 27.34, "upward_expansion": 12.47, "deceleration": 60.56, "rotation_down": 46.14, "downward_expansion": 74.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.716, 6.717636, 7.082223, 7.387317 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.68, "trend_reference": 7.743785, "distance_from_trend": -0.137373, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.007277, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.103849, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.199041, "excess_performance": -0.206441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137373, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076695, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.241457, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047169, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.199041, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.25949, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31796032, "relative_activity": 1.368655, "balance": 0.25949, "dry_up": 1.209663, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06877, "annualized_volatility": 0.276887, "from_high_reference": -0.369565, "from_low_reference": 0.055292 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.743785, "fair_value_reference": 7.007277, "structural_low": 6.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.005979, "positive_rate": 0.62069, "directional_follow_through": 0.344828, "median_excess_return": -0.010358, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.288073, "worst_return": -0.146305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027523, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.018282, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.131769, "worst_return": -0.130872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.102387, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.0953, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.444758, "worst_return": -0.059633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.58, "volume": 29190837, "typical_volume": 24490091.95, "trend": 7.826883, "fair_value": 7.00419, "relative_strength": -20.121566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.098407, "energy": 60.720097, "activity_lines": [ 6.653333, 6.776625, 7.228252, 7.523052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.83, "volume": 20081895, "typical_volume": 23521908.8, "trend": 7.787007, "fair_value": 7.006459, "relative_strength": -15.488726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.14759, "energy": 50.463906, "activity_lines": [ 6.726, 6.75107, 7.157499, 7.458737 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.68, "volume": 31796032, "typical_volume": 23231593.3, "trend": 7.743785, "fair_value": 7.007277, "relative_strength": -21.103849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.122421, "energy": 48.18944, "activity_lines": [ 6.716, 6.717636, 7.082223, 7.387317 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }