{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfe2495c-9ad9-423d-8c97-9cbd9a357e34", "symbol": "FSEP", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY BUFFER ETF - SEPTEMBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.047, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.91, "architecture_energy": 73.925, "architecture_maturity": 43.188, "architecture_confidence": 76.828, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.28, "rotation_up": 65.12, "upward_expansion": 89.38, "deceleration": 51.21, "rotation_down": 25.17, "downward_expansion": 13.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.656, 55.36464, 54.867829, 54.106358 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 56.32, "trend_reference": 53.244203, "distance_from_trend": 0.057768, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.255983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217572, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.730816, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081829, "excess_performance": -0.043796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057768, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024978, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.217572, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006348, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037308, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003785, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081829, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.691909, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52701, "relative_activity": 0.27293, "balance": 0.691909, "dry_up": 0.419335, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012243, "annualized_volatility": 0.082325, "from_high_reference": -0.000887, "from_low_reference": 0.147982 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.244203, "fair_value_reference": 46.255983, "structural_low": 49.14, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.011522, "positive_rate": 0.710526, "directional_follow_through": 0.710526, "median_excess_return": -0.001766, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.040048, "worst_return": -0.038961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.032736, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.007122, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.073033, "worst_return": -0.007489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.072097, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029295, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.102267, "worst_return": 0.002704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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53.245649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.52, "volume": 93568, "typical_volume": 238639.65, "trend": 52.74137, "fair_value": 45.818771, "relative_strength": -3.205101, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.922779, "energy": 75.633737, "activity_lines": [ 55.063573, 54.887325, 54.076694, 53.433939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.17, "volume": 88055, "typical_volume": 235445.7, "trend": 52.866703, "fair_value": 45.924605, "relative_strength": -2.209441, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.498697, "energy": 74.016985, "activity_lines": [ 55.13912, 54.965349, 54.267204, 53.590625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.1, "volume": 99947, "typical_volume": 237866.7, "trend": 52.97355, "fair_value": 46.028003, "relative_strength": -1.678417, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.471641, "energy": 73.594687, "activity_lines": [ 55.156, 55.014153, 54.435333, 53.734708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.52, "volume": 83180, "typical_volume": 198949.1, "trend": 53.10587, "fair_value": 46.139156, "relative_strength": -1.895236, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.713335, "energy": 71.08135, "activity_lines": [ 55.309333, 55.125033, 54.625033, 53.898995 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.32, "volume": 52701, "typical_volume": 193093.45, "trend": 53.244203, "fair_value": 46.255983, "relative_strength": -3.730816, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.909546, "energy": 73.924509, "activity_lines": [ 55.656, 55.36464, 54.867829, 54.106358 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }