{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfe2dae2-cc00-44c3-8ded-71553a52624f", "symbol": "NG", "name": "National Grid plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 94.012, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.577, "architecture_energy": 36.567, "architecture_maturity": 10.05, "architecture_confidence": 91.824, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.29, "rotation_up": 19.57, "upward_expansion": 5.64, "deceleration": 45.73, "rotation_down": 47.33, "downward_expansion": 76.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 1214.166667, 1222.518182, 1232.827096, 1249.405727 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1200.0, "trend_reference": 1263.99338, "distance_from_trend": -0.050628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1069.542549, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.121975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.509662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.065911, "excess_performance": -0.117147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019759, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.121975, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089867, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11747, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065911, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.769171, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39092456, "relative_activity": 0.844603, "balance": 0.769171, "dry_up": 0.842926, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045783, "annualized_volatility": 0.307314, "from_high_reference": -0.159745, "from_low_reference": 0.200474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1263.99338, "fair_value_reference": 1069.542549, "structural_low": 1174.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.041132, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.027368, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.091787, "worst_return": -0.133147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043382, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.042932, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184056, "worst_return": -0.13779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.093152, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010689, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.336404, "worst_return": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.222438, "energy": 12.405219, "activity_lines": [ 1231.7, 1227.676412, 1247.958071, 1259.509501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1257.0, "volume": 38757195, "typical_volume": 52867741.15, "trend": 1259.297294, "fair_value": 1065.441668, "relative_strength": -0.62759, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.10386, "energy": 9.227278, "activity_lines": [ 1241.6, 1232.673653, 1246.659352, 1259.610297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1237.5, "volume": 34072295, "typical_volume": 50595521.45, "trend": 1262.640222, "fair_value": 1066.771766, "relative_strength": -3.388961, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.30744, "energy": 16.794806, "activity_lines": [ 1241.8, 1234.494105, 1244.139909, 1258.20402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1190.0, "volume": 44137362, "typical_volume": 50355685.2, "trend": 1263.733321, "fair_value": 1068.129587, "relative_strength": -8.084087, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.072953, "energy": 30.584481, "activity_lines": [ 1224.466667, 1226.772727, 1237.571235, 1253.517554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1200.0, "volume": 39092456, "typical_volume": 46284993.85, "trend": 1263.99338, "fair_value": 1069.542549, "relative_strength": -7.509662, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.577296, "energy": 36.566791, "activity_lines": [ 1214.166667, 1222.518182, 1232.827096, 1249.405727 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }