{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfe4fb99-138f-4633-9b92-41491bb6b81a", "symbol": "002193", "name": "Shandong Ruyi Woolen Garment Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.966, "architecture_energy": 67.304, "architecture_maturity": 37.978, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 21.13, "upward_expansion": 14.39, "deceleration": 42.72, "rotation_down": 60.51, "downward_expansion": 87.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.965333, 4.112545, 4.586476, 5.008946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.28, "trend_reference": 5.463667, "distance_from_trend": -0.216643, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.4375, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.212874, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.429771, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.300654, "excess_performance": -0.308053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.216643, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081582, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.212874, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25634, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264298, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062715, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.300654, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.219345, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22805000, "relative_activity": 0.618686, "balance": 0.219345, "dry_up": 0.677594, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131021, "annualized_volatility": 0.656575, "from_high_reference": -0.420839, "from_low_reference": 0.3375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.463667, "fair_value_reference": 5.4375, "structural_low": 3.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.01518, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": 0.008816, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.35283, "worst_return": -0.243299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.071174, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.018761, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.438395, "worst_return": -0.152034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.109204, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001036, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.790831, "worst_return": -0.254717, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.412013, "energy": 67.217319, "activity_lines": [ 4.394, 4.574545, 5.141667, 5.443376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.95, "volume": 20757479, "typical_volume": 41333073.2, "trend": 5.620667, "fair_value": 5.49391, "relative_strength": -31.917261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.79822, "energy": 76.106581, "activity_lines": [ 4.227333, 4.421091, 4.987524, 5.332774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.54, "volume": 38652401, "typical_volume": 40348196.1, "trend": 5.550333, "fair_value": 5.473782, "relative_strength": -38.413944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.140933, "energy": 78.023711, "activity_lines": [ 3.966, 4.228182, 4.807714, 5.198538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.83, "volume": 17690468, "typical_volume": 38836988.3, "trend": 5.498333, "fair_value": 5.45641, "relative_strength": -31.500896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.379511, "energy": 79.534208, "activity_lines": [ 3.882, 4.118182, 4.669762, 5.087548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.28, "volume": 22805000, "typical_volume": 36860353.3, "trend": 5.463667, "fair_value": 5.4375, "relative_strength": -26.429771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.966096, "energy": 67.303586, "activity_lines": [ 3.965333, 4.112545, 4.586476, 5.008946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }