{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfea6fc4-48f1-4dc5-8e7a-e2826c604a8d", "symbol": "PEN", "name": "Peninsula Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.055, "architecture_energy": 86.993, "architecture_maturity": 46.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.699, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.83, "rotation_up": 13.01, "upward_expansion": 21.39, "deceleration": 37.28, "rotation_down": 78.63, "downward_expansion": 99.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.287333, 0.327091, 0.370753, 0.430009 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.275, "trend_reference": 0.529769, "distance_from_trend": -0.480906, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.274765, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.784274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.855538, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.570312, "excess_performance": -0.634018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.480906, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120135, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.784274, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064018, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.508555, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206696, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.570312, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.447302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7019604, "relative_activity": 0.699992, "balance": 0.447302, "dry_up": 1.337677, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.233423, "annualized_volatility": 0.995686, "from_high_reference": -0.744186, "from_low_reference": 0.222222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.529769, "fair_value_reference": 1.274765, "structural_low": 0.225, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.030835, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.032453, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.528571, "worst_return": -0.435484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027027, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.009026, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.65, "worst_return": -0.38, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.170179, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032609, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.565041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.291045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.413043, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021583, "active": false 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.365, "volume": 5906721, "typical_volume": 9596255.15, "trend": 0.571769, "fair_value": 1.307626, "relative_strength": -33.94401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.741249, "energy": 58.524173, "activity_lines": [ 0.379, 0.389121, 0.424607, 0.486738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.245, "volume": 21083986, "typical_volume": 9966613.9, "trend": 0.558269, "fair_value": 1.296836, "relative_strength": -54.93609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.288713, "energy": 82.502008, "activity_lines": [ 0.329, 0.362455, 0.402997, 0.465656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.275, "volume": 19647260, "typical_volume": 10406362.3, "trend": 0.544269, "fair_value": 1.285488, "relative_strength": -49.93432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.59679, "energy": 86.303798, "activity_lines": [ 0.305333, 0.343818, 0.386125, 0.447381 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.275, "volume": 7019604, "typical_volume": 10028126.55, "trend": 0.529769, "fair_value": 1.274765, "relative_strength": -50.855538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.055476, "energy": 86.992865, "activity_lines": [ 0.287333, 0.327091, 0.370753, 0.430009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }