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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.863, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.817, "architecture_energy": 19.169, "architecture_maturity": 31.604, "architecture_confidence": 67.284, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.13, "rotation_up": 25.22, "upward_expansion": 18.39, "deceleration": 44.31, "rotation_down": 29.46, "downward_expansion": 57.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.462667, 79.052545, 80.145107, 81.401178 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 80.22, "trend_reference": 82.145363, "distance_from_trend": -0.023438, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.613719, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152359, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.853619, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011778, "excess_performance": -0.137403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002151, "read": "Rising" 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"trend": 81.948706, "fair_value": 69.480614, "relative_strength": -6.687848, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.914645, "energy": 24.099493, "activity_lines": [ 79.56, 78.972727, 80.790131, 81.79319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.65, "volume": 2301185, "typical_volume": 2851288.35, "trend": 81.997476, "fair_value": 69.533618, "relative_strength": -10.852162, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.231084, "energy": 25.104944, "activity_lines": [ 79.016667, 78.734909, 80.323498, 81.515854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.22, "volume": 3245522, "typical_volume": 2842401.65, "trend": 82.145363, "fair_value": 69.613719, "relative_strength": -10.853619, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.817268, "energy": 19.16867, "activity_lines": [ 79.462667, 79.052545, 80.145107, 81.401178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }