{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bff23931-5386-4597-bf2d-658be13633bb", "symbol": "SCWO", "name": "374Water Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.874, "architecture_energy": 24.618, "architecture_maturity": 58.918, "architecture_confidence": 84.774, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.08, "rotation_up": 24.67, "upward_expansion": 14.37, "deceleration": 43.42, "rotation_down": 33.6, "downward_expansion": 62.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.144667, 2.122364, 2.255167, 2.387731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.15, "trend_reference": 2.551833, "distance_from_trend": -0.157468, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.586981, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.71662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.352337, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.304207, "excess_performance": -0.491661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157468, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072578, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.71662, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031714, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.353523, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004515, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304207, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.065203, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 179338, "relative_activity": 0.631887, "balance": 1.065203, "dry_up": 0.878303, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174157, "annualized_volatility": 0.559386, "from_high_reference": -0.802752, "from_low_reference": 0.228571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.551833, "fair_value_reference": 7.586981, "structural_low": 1.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.045661, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.010529, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.757426, "worst_return": -0.383684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.082031, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.020425, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.003357, "worst_return": -0.505446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.214286, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.334906, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.275779, "worst_return": -0.696747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.21555, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.519313, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.335938, "worst_return": -0.8415, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044554, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129541, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.411098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.47196, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.889209, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.696278, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.329662, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035944, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063559, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.883547, "energy": 37.436801, "activity_lines": [ 2.079333, 2.133818, 2.315738, 2.439839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.18, "volume": 210215, "typical_volume": 292279.75, "trend": 2.563833, "fair_value": 7.684096, "relative_strength": -31.507354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.108629, "energy": 31.490716, "activity_lines": [ 2.125333, 2.128545, 2.28619, 2.41443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.15, "volume": 179338, "typical_volume": 283813.35, "trend": 2.551833, "fair_value": 7.586981, "relative_strength": -35.352337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.874393, "energy": 24.618164, "activity_lines": [ 2.144667, 2.122364, 2.255167, 2.387731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }