{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bff49a44-d2cf-4f88-8e30-4564cb190240", "symbol": "XIFE", "name": "Xtrackers (IE) Plc - Xtrackers Global Infrastructure ESG UCITS ETF 1C USD Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 70.449, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.131, "architecture_energy": 14.123, "architecture_maturity": 32.426, "architecture_confidence": 43.058, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.89, "rotation_up": 36.98, "upward_expansion": 61.48, "deceleration": 59.13, "rotation_down": 25.23, "downward_expansion": 16.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.285, 32.346727, 32.257333, 32.219656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.119999, "trend_reference": 32.045334, "distance_from_trend": 0.00233, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.915032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073708, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.516856, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.041673, "excess_performance": -0.022966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00233, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073708, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080984, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041673, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.328272, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1154, "relative_activity": 0.201424, "balance": 0.328272, "dry_up": 1.598871, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022093, "annualized_volatility": 0.155414, "from_high_reference": -0.091066, "from_low_reference": 0.140827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.045334, "fair_value_reference": 29.915032, "structural_low": 30.695, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000779, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022796, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.030501, "worst_return": -0.005269, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00484, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02587, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 28.405001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 29.299999, "volume": 18, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": 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7130.9, "trend": 31.706167, "fair_value": 29.807751, "relative_strength": 0.453499, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.241071, "energy": 32.085376, "activity_lines": [ 32.349667, 32.247364, 32.188048, 32.082076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.689999, "volume": 8917, "typical_volume": 6514.15, "trend": 31.803834, "fair_value": 29.838743, "relative_strength": 3.128369, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.273926, "energy": 39.54922, "activity_lines": [ 32.462, 32.351272, 32.231167, 32.145549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.68, "volume": 11418, "typical_volume": 6816.05, "trend": 31.909167, "fair_value": 29.868969, "relative_strength": 1.865548, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.960829, "energy": 31.733126, "activity_lines": [ 32.542667, 32.438454, 32.276738, 32.202075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.040001, "volume": 15152, "typical_volume": 5968.4, "trend": 31.978334, "fair_value": 29.891822, "relative_strength": -2.183682, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.303107, "energy": 15.595507, "activity_lines": [ 32.377667, 32.384364, 32.261048, 32.210516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.119999, "volume": 1154, "typical_volume": 5729.2, "trend": 32.045334, "fair_value": 29.915032, "relative_strength": -4.516856, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.131076, "energy": 14.123281, "activity_lines": [ 32.285, 32.346727, 32.257333, 32.219656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }