{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bff6040e-cdf7-4c8a-848b-c05fec7725af", "symbol": "PUMP", "name": "ProPetro Holding Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.866, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -45.558, "architecture_energy": 62.775, "architecture_maturity": 19.366, "architecture_confidence": 72.384, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.83, "rotation_up": 17.33, "upward_expansion": 21.5, "deceleration": 43.73, "rotation_down": 74.06, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.571333, 12.399636, 13.702429, 13.862387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.98, "trend_reference": 13.590333, "distance_from_trend": -0.192073, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.091603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207708, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.352267, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023132, "excess_performance": -0.148757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192073, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089144, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207708, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.605856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103523, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.672233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023132, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.521263, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15542344, "relative_activity": 0.71383, "balance": 0.521263, "dry_up": 1.012426, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168101, "annualized_volatility": 0.583676, "from_high_reference": -0.406486, "from_low_reference": 1.43459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.590333, "fair_value_reference": 9.091603, "structural_low": 10.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.072685, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.088345, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151432, "worst_return": -0.249307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.092798, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.140571, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.306018, "worst_return": -0.199801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004093, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.076729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.279129, "worst_return": -0.328255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.122467, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.085364, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.020776, "worst_return": 0.069168, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127321, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091814, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135427, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.243956, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.275623, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.269618, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.224771, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.309129, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093449, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063168, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.349869, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010811, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.03, "volume": 3735316, "typical_volume": 6218708.9, "trend": 8.378667, "fair_value": 9.287308, "relative_strength": 1.707088, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.390147, 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14.951333, 15.48, 15.224762, 14.393505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.09, "volume": 22067046, "typical_volume": 20377063.45, "trend": 13.193333, "fair_value": 9.024872, "relative_strength": 6.953685, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.627052, "energy": 15.955387, "activity_lines": [ 13.977333, 14.791636, 14.986143, 14.32486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.87, "volume": 21770874, "typical_volume": 20663772.35, "trend": 13.281, "fair_value": 9.048141, "relative_strength": 11.410475, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.19486, "energy": 19.493366, "activity_lines": [ 13.474667, 14.334364, 14.821476, 14.304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.0, "volume": 13553416, "typical_volume": 20660738.1, "trend": 13.410667, "fair_value": 9.068397, "relative_strength": 13.113406, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.49186, "energy": 28.632175, "activity_lines": [ 13.14, 13.968909, 14.661429, 14.285871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.8, "volume": 22509540, "typical_volume": 21071074.9, "trend": 13.495333, "fair_value": 9.079679, "relative_strength": 2.456415, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.987622, "energy": 48.98734, "activity_lines": [ 12.572667, 13.434, 14.382952, 14.181957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.1, "volume": 36569562, "typical_volume": 21974885.85, "trend": 13.538, "fair_value": 9.087051, "relative_strength": -5.438202, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.872944, "energy": 57.136206, "activity_lines": [ 11.968667, 12.874545, 14.040667, 14.027419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.98, "volume": 15542344, "typical_volume": 21773160.8, "trend": 13.590333, "fair_value": 9.091603, "relative_strength": -10.352267, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.558352, "energy": 62.774937, "activity_lines": [ 11.571333, 12.399636, 13.702429, 13.862387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }