{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0078b90-42af-4220-9270-badcf36417b6", "symbol": "IF", "name": "Banca IFIS S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.166, "architecture_energy": 58.214, "architecture_maturity": 70.715, "architecture_confidence": 86.771, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.37, "rotation_up": 24.98, "upward_expansion": 10.88, "deceleration": 59.48, "rotation_down": 49.97, "downward_expansion": 79.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.938, 15.350545, 17.298105, 18.575996 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.18, "trend_reference": 20.424809, "distance_from_trend": -0.256786, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.004203, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.156864, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.798342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.412195, "excess_performance": -0.583087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.256786, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102944, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.156864, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38917, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.387983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.412195, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.085116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2903198, "relative_activity": 1.497261, "balance": 1.085116, "dry_up": 1.486224, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120157, "annualized_volatility": 0.745717, "from_high_reference": -0.427038, "from_low_reference": 0.249383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.424809, "fair_value_reference": 18.004203, "structural_low": 12.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.017991, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01608, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.250443, "worst_return": -0.345829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.055874, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001643, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.258674, "worst_return": -0.146927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.073741, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036397, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073741, "worst_return": 0.073741, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 1726852.3, "trend": 21.379431, "fair_value": 17.944735, "relative_strength": -38.360198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.213416, "energy": 87.067555, "activity_lines": [ 14.754667, 16.694182, 18.550104, 19.759725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.91, "volume": 2373433, "typical_volume": 1775663.15, "trend": 21.076134, "fair_value": 17.965129, "relative_strength": -38.831614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.807527, "energy": 85.92488, "activity_lines": [ 14.515333, 16.150182, 18.096229, 19.342342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.77, "volume": 2220867, "typical_volume": 1832342.65, "trend": 20.75224, "fair_value": 17.98288, "relative_strength": -39.19779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.049459, "energy": 71.972314, "activity_lines": [ 14.702, 15.671091, 17.661881, 18.935495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.18, "volume": 2903198, "typical_volume": 1939006.6, "trend": 20.424809, "fair_value": 18.004203, "relative_strength": -38.798342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.166064, "energy": 58.214275, "activity_lines": [ 14.938, 15.350545, 17.298105, 18.575996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }