{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c009878c-8757-4e2c-a3fe-c63932f80eca", "symbol": "300833", "name": "Guangzhou Haoyang Electronic Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.399, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.427, "architecture_energy": 9.159, "architecture_maturity": 74.912, "architecture_confidence": 47.591, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.86, "rotation_up": 33.05, "upward_expansion": 21.67, "deceleration": 40.41, "rotation_down": 19.23, "downward_expansion": 53.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.469333, 33.650016, 33.954346, 34.692669 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.84, "trend_reference": 36.529994, "distance_from_trend": 0.008486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.790586, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.288674, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.719268, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.196861, "excess_performance": -0.20426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008486, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073994, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.288674, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046065, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1133, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196861, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.242512, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4456273, "relative_activity": 0.798595, "balance": 1.242512, "dry_up": 0.876254, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077007, "annualized_volatility": 0.423042, "from_high_reference": -0.254251, "from_low_reference": 0.261644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.529994, "fair_value_reference": 51.790586, "structural_low": 29.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.037299, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.005156, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.249683, "worst_return": -0.162069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.12392, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.036303, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.375954, "worst_return": -0.273212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.246809, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.14702, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.404818, "worst_return": -0.109014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 53.182248, "relative_strength": -13.230485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.900562, "energy": 28.297081, "activity_lines": [ 33.391334, 33.237327, 33.966344, 35.248668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.099998, "volume": 6057716, "typical_volume": 5948764.15, "trend": 36.917328, "fair_value": 52.704389, "relative_strength": -17.315109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.295579, "energy": 24.980718, "activity_lines": [ 33.143333, 32.921615, 33.754677, 34.914302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.299999, "volume": 3423453, "typical_volume": 5585504.2, "trend": 36.657994, "fair_value": 52.232902, "relative_strength": -12.503123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.579689, "energy": 18.840704, "activity_lines": [ 33.302, 32.937326, 33.67844, 34.680926 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.84, "volume": 4456273, "typical_volume": 5580140.4, "trend": 36.529994, "fair_value": 51.790586, "relative_strength": -7.719268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.427458, "energy": 9.159358, "activity_lines": [ 34.469333, 33.650016, 33.954346, 34.692669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }