{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c00b05ec-839d-4062-93f0-e8514f1e42dc", "symbol": "ALROC", "name": "RocTool S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.059, "architecture_energy": 36.219, "architecture_maturity": 32.65, "architecture_confidence": 73.449, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.47, "rotation_up": 62.67, "upward_expansion": 70.63, "deceleration": 51.3, "rotation_down": 15.95, "downward_expansion": 13.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.465, 1.358818, 1.377433, 1.281348 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.565, "trend_reference": 1.116, "distance_from_trend": 0.40233, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.89078, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.756887, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 91.104325, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.582508, "excess_performance": 1.529197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.40233, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.390059, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.756887, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201391, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.911043, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.309474, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.582508, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.487293, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 502190, "relative_activity": 0.660946, "balance": 2.487293, "dry_up": 0.719636, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194151, "annualized_volatility": 1.187711, "from_high_reference": -0.251196, "from_low_reference": 15.002045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.116, "fair_value_reference": 0.89078, "structural_low": 0.604, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.324324, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.32414, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.564356, "worst_return": -0.07027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.726318, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.791771, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.574257, "worst_return": -0.121622, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.804768, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.819118, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.582508, "worst_return": 0.027027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.140541, 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"fair_value": 0.917703, "relative_strength": 94.265085, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.335003, "energy": 19.484716, "activity_lines": [ 1.196, 1.301545, 1.304119, 1.194183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.475, "volume": 826466, "typical_volume": 885788.5, "trend": 1.0525, "fair_value": 0.909146, "relative_strength": 98.950404, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.167887, "energy": 13.790299, "activity_lines": [ 1.295667, 1.308636, 1.328167, 1.223219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.47, "volume": 401575, "typical_volume": 765038.95, "trend": 1.0815, "fair_value": 0.900492, "relative_strength": 89.589069, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.833281, "energy": 23.66082, "activity_lines": [ 1.377333, 1.322727, 1.349229, 1.250155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.565, "volume": 502190, "typical_volume": 759804.55, "trend": 1.116, "fair_value": 0.89078, "relative_strength": 91.104325, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.058884, "energy": 36.218914, "activity_lines": [ 1.465, 1.358818, 1.377433, 1.281348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }