{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c00ba851-d4e3-4ec4-b54d-9952a4ac48ca", "symbol": "UBS", "name": "UBM Development AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.728, "architecture_energy": 37.753, "architecture_maturity": 72.186, "architecture_confidence": 91.366, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.06, "rotation_up": 25.5, "upward_expansion": 4.56, "deceleration": 55.25, "rotation_down": 47.1, "downward_expansion": 77.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.023334, 17.059091, 17.128571, 17.392796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.1, "trend_reference": 17.985, "distance_from_trend": -0.049208, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.982372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144246, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.184821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.145, "excess_performance": -0.319247, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049208, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080991, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144246, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029103, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.301848, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005341, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932808, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13078, "relative_activity": 0.860856, "balance": 0.932808, "dry_up": 0.765526, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025866, "annualized_volatility": 0.137767, "from_high_reference": -0.302041, "from_low_reference": 0.036364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.985, "fair_value_reference": 19.982372, "structural_low": 16.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.005447, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.029703, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.148289, "worst_return": -0.146825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.010761, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055108, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.132979, "worst_return": -0.190476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.103175, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.178412, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.101064, "worst_return": -0.168739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01847, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.035616, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035533, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.335438, "energy": 40.253743, "activity_lines": [ 17.133333, 17.148182, 17.267143, 17.723871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.0, "volume": 13711, "typical_volume": 17560.6, "trend": 18.336667, "fair_value": 20.126282, "relative_strength": -29.449781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.348146, "energy": 39.783354, "activity_lines": [ 17.093333, 17.120909, 17.215714, 17.629462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.0, "volume": 9390, "typical_volume": 17002.85, "trend": 18.24, "fair_value": 20.076282, "relative_strength": -29.800811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.659192, "energy": 38.925253, "activity_lines": [ 17.053333, 17.096363, 17.176905, 17.543226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 10340, "typical_volume": 16536.1, "trend": 18.141667, "fair_value": 20.023397, "relative_strength": -29.371227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.75024, "energy": 42.351071, "activity_lines": [ 17.01, 17.061818, 17.141905, 17.46 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.1, "volume": 13078, "typical_volume": 15191.85, "trend": 17.985, "fair_value": 19.982372, "relative_strength": -30.184821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.727636, "energy": 37.753302, "activity_lines": [ 17.023334, 17.059091, 17.128571, 17.392796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }