{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0105168-8808-4738-9dd7-71250da19c79", "symbol": "MLDR", "name": "GLOBAL X INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREASURY LADDER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.561, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.401, "architecture_energy": 55.127, "architecture_maturity": 24.687, "architecture_confidence": 93.193, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.92, "rotation_up": 14.42, "upward_expansion": 11.25, "deceleration": 40.03, "rotation_down": 63.98, "downward_expansion": 86.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.079805, 48.191603, 48.295247, 48.424929 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.1806, "trend_reference": 48.59764, "distance_from_trend": -0.008581, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.580688, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012608, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.759294, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015564, "excess_performance": -0.141189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008581, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003658, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012608, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011142, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01043, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015564, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.571246, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3275, "relative_activity": 2.459447, "balance": 0.571246, "dry_up": 0.895727, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008005, "annualized_volatility": 0.042862, "from_high_reference": -0.029464, "from_low_reference": 0.009769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.59764, "fair_value_reference": 47.580688, "structural_low": 47.81498, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.001429, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001725, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.006179, "worst_return": -0.003321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.059367, "energy": 24.026685, "activity_lines": [ 48.377118, 48.355112, 48.45262, 48.574622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.264264, "volume": 796, "typical_volume": 1154.75, "trend": 48.680539, "fair_value": 47.567053, "relative_strength": -8.970895, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.463594, "energy": 27.615134, "activity_lines": [ 48.328658, 48.341094, 48.421948, 48.546575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.945327, "volume": 443, "typical_volume": 1173.6, "trend": 48.649487, "fair_value": 47.570913, "relative_strength": -8.785427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.79858, "energy": 51.244634, "activity_lines": [ 48.181964, 48.27537, 48.367467, 48.499142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.938749, "volume": 257, "typical_volume": 1169.15, "trend": 48.620156, "fair_value": 47.574628, "relative_strength": -9.451489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.639922, "energy": 63.304409, "activity_lines": [ 48.065061, 48.209782, 48.31789, 48.453288 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.1806, "volume": 3275, "typical_volume": 1331.6, "trend": 48.59764, "fair_value": 47.580688, "relative_strength": -11.759294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.401244, "energy": 55.12698, "activity_lines": [ 48.079805, 48.191603, 48.295247, 48.424929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }