{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c014b0bf-2487-493d-b5b7-7d4c5141e2d0", "symbol": "ADCT", "name": "ADC Therapeutics SA", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.582, "architecture_energy": 62.261, "architecture_maturity": 73.974, "architecture_confidence": 91.196, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.04, "rotation_up": 29.4, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 54.32, "rotation_down": 49.82, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.152667, 1.155818, 1.782667, 2.313054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.13, "trend_reference": 2.91, "distance_from_trend": -0.611684, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.775561, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.592875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.604444, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.718204, "excess_performance": -0.843829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.611684, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235619, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.592875, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.840825, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.696044, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.567079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.718204, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.357013, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4462827, "relative_activity": 0.612065, "balance": 1.357013, "dry_up": 0.560763, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.392737, "annualized_volatility": 1.727027, "from_high_reference": -0.773092, "from_low_reference": 0.449461 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.91, "fair_value_reference": 2.775561, "structural_low": 0.7796, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.050338, "positive_rate": 0.432432, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.055792, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 1.889764, "worst_return": -0.678466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.20332, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.222368, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.850613, "worst_return": -0.582791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.436217, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.474075, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.774834, "worst_return": -0.577228, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.708788, "energy": 69.219222, "activity_lines": [ 1.240667, 1.416545, 2.235952, 2.693462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.15, "volume": 3613521, "typical_volume": 7363072.35, "trend": 3.076667, "fair_value": 2.781651, "relative_strength": -68.358358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.422132, "energy": 63.909508, "activity_lines": [ 1.228, 1.297273, 2.074381, 2.564086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.05, "volume": 4105472, "typical_volume": 7303593.35, "trend": 2.994333, "fair_value": 2.778958, "relative_strength": -71.087436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.48391, "energy": 63.518435, "activity_lines": [ 1.178, 1.198, 1.917381, 2.433333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.13, "volume": 4462827, "typical_volume": 7291431.6, "trend": 2.91, "fair_value": 2.775561, "relative_strength": -69.604444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.581696, "energy": 62.26059, "activity_lines": [ 1.152667, 1.155818, 1.782667, 2.313054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }