{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c01d4686-e4c2-44da-aaf1-8b8e682635eb", "symbol": "3060", "name": "Yanbu Cement Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.532, "architecture_energy": 18.43, "architecture_maturity": 39.716, "architecture_confidence": 86.871, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.52, "rotation_up": 22.32, "upward_expansion": 53.37, "deceleration": 89.08, "rotation_down": 33.98, "downward_expansion": 19.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.082, 15.203471, 15.145641, 15.013225 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.04, "trend_reference": 14.932317, "distance_from_trend": 0.007211, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.266939, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292799, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.083726, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000664, "excess_performance": 0.031165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007211, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012089, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292799, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089295, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010837, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117363, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000664, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.588152, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1558609, "relative_activity": 0.7638, "balance": 1.588152, "dry_up": 0.670254, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033935, "annualized_volatility": 0.207736, "from_high_reference": -0.088214, "from_low_reference": 0.111685 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.932317, "fair_value_reference": 21.266939, "structural_low": 13.529017, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.065934, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.03351, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.048366, "worst_return": -0.11933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.084291, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.00649, "worst_return": -0.162092, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.136324, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.089293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.071341, "worst_return": -0.201307, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043651, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026126, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.191139, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053821, "active": false 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.16, "volume": 1360081, "typical_volume": 2044471.75, "trend": 14.88765, "fair_value": 21.658938, "relative_strength": 2.610738, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.644472, "energy": 25.3837, "activity_lines": [ 15.312, 15.385356, 15.099824, 14.982404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.23, "volume": 1326446, "typical_volume": 2021765.05, "trend": 14.917983, "fair_value": 21.527313, "relative_strength": 2.568178, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.605959, "energy": 20.196382, "activity_lines": [ 15.267333, 15.34989, 15.13416, 15.004491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.94, "volume": 1225739, "typical_volume": 1988222.2, "trend": 14.92665, "fair_value": 21.396097, "relative_strength": 2.678776, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.647144, "energy": 18.168578, "activity_lines": [ 15.139333, 15.261495, 15.136162, 15.005912 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.04, "volume": 1558609, "typical_volume": 2040598.7, "trend": 14.932317, "fair_value": 21.266939, "relative_strength": 1.083726, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.531965, "energy": 18.4297, "activity_lines": [ 15.082, 15.203471, 15.145641, 15.013225 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }