{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c02045a7-5c3e-4400-a7b1-1a9b2fe59e96", "symbol": "GMG", "name": "Goodman Group", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.708, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.211, "architecture_energy": 20.168, "architecture_maturity": 42.633, "architecture_confidence": 59.736, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.98, "rotation_up": 14.59, "upward_expansion": 19.12, "deceleration": 68.74, "rotation_down": 52.94, "downward_expansion": 32.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.563334, 30.019928, 30.22115, 29.78524 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.950001, "trend_reference": 29.563685, "distance_from_trend": 0.013067, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.718148, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025006, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.886901, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.036691, "excess_performance": -0.027015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013067, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006788, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025006, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068869, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032502, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036691, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754337, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13075670, "relative_activity": 0.892606, "balance": 0.754337, "dry_up": 0.968206, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045788, "annualized_volatility": 0.260725, "from_high_reference": -0.193403, "from_low_reference": 0.219463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.563685, "fair_value_reference": 30.718148, "structural_low": 24.559999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.017639, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.000194, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.121918, "worst_return": -0.07044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055071, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.021695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.258238, "worst_return": -0.143439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.123755, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.059553, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.457813, "worst_return": -0.248364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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30.208443, 29.820875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.610001, "volume": 13995759, "typical_volume": 15537917.4, "trend": 29.607018, "fair_value": 30.586647, "relative_strength": -6.810373, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.003134, "energy": 21.893445, "activity_lines": [ 29.601333, 30.283765, 30.142393, 29.750339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.77, "volume": 15502930, "typical_volume": 15166696.2, "trend": 29.572018, "fair_value": 30.652572, "relative_strength": -4.894208, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.22867, "energy": 22.10996, "activity_lines": [ 29.482667, 30.130846, 30.182866, 29.760854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.950001, "volume": 13075670, "typical_volume": 14648874.75, "trend": 29.563685, "fair_value": 30.718148, "relative_strength": -6.886901, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.210724, "energy": 20.168281, "activity_lines": [ 29.563334, 30.019928, 30.22115, 29.78524 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }