{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0303dc9-dab4-4e97-a1d4-304485220f2a", "symbol": "1A0", "name": "Katrina Group Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.492, "architecture_energy": 69.449, "architecture_maturity": 69.225, "architecture_confidence": 88.72, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 25.34, "upward_expansion": 14.92, "deceleration": 41.91, "rotation_down": 62.33, "downward_expansion": 92.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.025067, 0.025382, 0.0265, 0.027912 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.030467, "distance_from_trend": -0.179431, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.032372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.227723, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.120622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.375, "excess_performance": -0.529835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179431, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116054, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.227723, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094046, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.391206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074606, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 24.361809, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 24.361809, "dry_up": 0.023424, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061538, "annualized_volatility": 0.417124, "from_high_reference": -0.519231, "from_low_reference": 0.315789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.030467, "fair_value_reference": 0.032372, "structural_low": 0.019, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.014541, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.136364, "worst_return": -0.367647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.109091, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.109704, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.538462, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.208333, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.247695, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.653846, "worst_return": -0.558824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.317802, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.3559, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.576923, "worst_return": -0.545455, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.26087, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.447368, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027027, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14105.0, "trend": 0.027067, "fair_value": 0.076853, "relative_strength": -19.553581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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0.030013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.026, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 200605.0, "trend": 0.0321, "fair_value": 0.03234, "relative_strength": -37.24896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.894904, "energy": 54.736765, "activity_lines": [ 0.026, 0.026527, 0.027805, 0.029596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.025, "volume": 11400, "typical_volume": 180895.0, "trend": 0.031733, "fair_value": 0.032372, "relative_strength": -39.330479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.752705, "energy": 57.693212, "activity_lines": [ 0.025667, 0.026145, 0.027429, 0.029138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 140920.0, "trend": 0.031367, "fair_value": 0.032372, "relative_strength": -39.421804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.203604, "energy": 55.002851, "activity_lines": [ 0.0254, 0.025818, 0.027095, 0.028703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 125270.0, "trend": 0.0309, "fair_value": 0.032372, "relative_strength": -39.107734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.807453, "energy": 68.938268, "activity_lines": [ 0.0252, 0.025564, 0.026786, 0.028292 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 121670.0, "trend": 0.030467, "fair_value": 0.032372, "relative_strength": -39.120622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.492259, "energy": 69.448757, "activity_lines": [ 0.025067, 0.025382, 0.0265, 0.027912 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }