{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c033a8fe-df43-4e0a-a3d6-47d6f503dd87", "symbol": "ALHPI", "name": "Hopium SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.701, "architecture_energy": 79.502, "architecture_maturity": 40.934, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.19, "rotation_up": 26.37, "upward_expansion": 20.37, "deceleration": 37.61, "rotation_down": 60.96, "downward_expansion": 98.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.004387, 0.004547, 0.00549, 0.00641 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0043, "trend_reference": 0.007107, "distance_from_trend": -0.394934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.693012, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.998403, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -46.628045, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.156863, "excess_performance": -0.210174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.394934, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088499, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.998403, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000769, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.46628, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053925, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156863, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.01772, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22993949, "relative_activity": 0.600512, "balance": 0.01772, "dry_up": 0.727732, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.223614, "annualized_volatility": 1.393863, "from_high_reference": -0.954737, "from_low_reference": 0.02381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.007107, "fair_value_reference": 2.693012, "structural_low": 0.0042, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.220408, "positive_rate": 0.12766, "directional_follow_through": 0.87234, "median_excess_return": -0.261143, "regime_survival": 0.957447, "best_return": 0.890909, "worst_return": -0.501555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.578947, "positive_rate": 0.066667, "directional_follow_through": 0.933333, "median_excess_return": -0.585091, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.824063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.790139, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.818466, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.192982, "worst_return": -0.926829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.214876, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.347368, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065217, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 35.959999, "volume": 1641, "typical_volume": 2643.6, "trend": 182.357331, "fair_value": 1349.581897, "relative_strength": -94.440522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.359967, "energy": 55.662492, "activity_lines": [ 0.004573, 0.004856, 0.005985, 0.006782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0043, "volume": 66686555, "typical_volume": 39988446.65, "trend": 0.007153, "fair_value": 2.938881, "relative_strength": -47.072328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.16924, "energy": 77.298656, "activity_lines": [ 0.004467, 0.004675, 0.005723, 0.006594 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0043, "volume": 22993949, "typical_volume": 38290543.95, "trend": 0.007107, "fair_value": 2.693012, "relative_strength": -46.628045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.70075, "energy": 79.501916, "activity_lines": [ 0.004387, 0.004547, 0.00549, 0.00641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }