{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c03488ff-0b96-41cf-950b-4868c30759ed", "symbol": "GAB", "name": "Gabelli Equity Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.671, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.871, "architecture_energy": 33.125, "architecture_maturity": 10.444, "architecture_confidence": 46.658, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.86, "rotation_up": 54.15, "upward_expansion": 50.73, "deceleration": 33.06, "rotation_down": 23.72, "downward_expansion": 11.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.652, 5.626689, 5.563578, 5.548474 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.74, "trend_reference": 5.569836, "distance_from_trend": 0.030551, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.777058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201576, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.301151, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018411, "excess_performance": -0.144036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030551, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004502, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201576, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013597, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020171, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018411, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.14282, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4354888, "relative_activity": 0.803704, "balance": 1.14282, "dry_up": 0.825178, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026598, "annualized_volatility": 0.157535, "from_high_reference": -0.039969, "from_low_reference": 0.11645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.569836, "fair_value_reference": 4.777058, "structural_low": 5.141296, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 6.7e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007316, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007055, "worst_return": -0.00692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.01468, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036144, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.01468, "worst_return": -0.01468, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.037895, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.117432, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037895, "worst_return": 0.037895, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"mixed", "direction": 17.750798, "energy": 31.174563, "activity_lines": [ 5.614772, 5.547926, 5.505328, 5.532932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.63, "volume": 7102609, "typical_volume": 5734722.15, "trend": 5.581821, "fair_value": 4.745057, "relative_strength": -7.049448, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.432776, "energy": 40.632396, "activity_lines": [ 5.63, 5.569951, 5.518723, 5.535572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.58, "volume": 3711212, "typical_volume": 5613037.85, "trend": 5.576028, "fair_value": 4.754751, "relative_strength": -7.133612, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.033297, "energy": 35.681479, "activity_lines": [ 5.62, 5.580903, 5.528169, 5.535455 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.61, "volume": 2716280, "typical_volume": 5496582.7, "trend": 5.572173, "fair_value": 4.765557, "relative_strength": -7.438799, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.466162, "energy": 23.833783, "activity_lines": [ 5.614, 5.59376, 5.540355, 5.537646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.74, "volume": 4354888, "typical_volume": 5418523.45, "trend": 5.569836, "fair_value": 4.777058, "relative_strength": -8.301151, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.871272, "energy": 33.125434, "activity_lines": [ 5.652, 5.626689, 5.563578, 5.548474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }