{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c04132d0-50b2-4cd5-9b25-9ff87b9eeac2", "symbol": "IBI-FK1", "name": "I.B.I MUT FDS LTD", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.489, "architecture_energy": 64.05, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.72, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.19, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 50.37, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.08082, 4.077013, 108.305936, 182.967457 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.0902, "trend_reference": 267.435503, "distance_from_trend": -0.984706, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 348.272212, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988256, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.871435, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989729, "excess_performance": -1.018629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984706, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.327804, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988256, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.08054, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988714, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.761883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989729, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 33.106594, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 390099, "relative_activity": 0.358781, "balance": 33.106594, "dry_up": 0.18738, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.595679, "annualized_volatility": 6.385286, "from_high_reference": -0.989908, "from_low_reference": 0.009876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 267.435503, "fair_value_reference": 348.272212, "structural_low": 4.0502, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.000319, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.006532, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.018181, "worst_return": -0.020851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006793, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.015404, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.02709, "worst_return": -0.072687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005971, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039505, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.021158, "worst_return": -0.047567, "sufficient": false }, { 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"volume": 21584, "typical_volume": 1105805.0, "trend": 280.62183, "fair_value": 350.463749, "relative_strength": -98.902022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.921068, "energy": 67.899852, "activity_lines": [ 4.0764, 11.361793, 129.058512, 200.808207 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.0902, "volume": 390099, "typical_volume": 1087289.7, "trend": 267.435503, "fair_value": 348.272212, "relative_strength": -98.871435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.488557, "energy": 64.050241, "activity_lines": [ 4.08082, 4.077013, 108.305936, 182.967457 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }