{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c04fa28c-2ed5-4cbd-969c-a63e9e5b3064", "symbol": "EXUS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World ex USA UCITS ETF 1C USD", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.279, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.286, "architecture_energy": 67.598, "architecture_maturity": 46.319, "architecture_confidence": 77.371, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.77, "rotation_up": 65.52, "upward_expansion": 86.68, "deceleration": 55.68, "rotation_down": 23.79, "downward_expansion": 11.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.006334, 39.76091, 39.099477, 38.500861 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.720001, "trend_reference": 37.827167, "distance_from_trend": 0.076475, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.986923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234429, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.29298, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.107274, "excess_performance": -0.063618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076475, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044656, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234429, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065479, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03293, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002853, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107274, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.492522, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 232785, "relative_activity": 1.919333, "balance": 1.492522, "dry_up": 1.512844, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018315, "annualized_volatility": 0.128225, "from_high_reference": -0.005859, "from_low_reference": 0.259122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.827167, "fair_value_reference": 32.986923, "structural_low": 34.174999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026956, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.005077, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.051032, "worst_return": -0.03107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.071571, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005779, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.128075, "worst_return": 0.015067, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.145072, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.015469, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.145072, "worst_return": 0.145072, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.109656, "energy": 71.694714, "activity_lines": [ 39.592, 39.381727, 38.673381, 38.159592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.775002, "volume": 196204, "typical_volume": 116564.35, "trend": 37.677834, "fair_value": 32.920259, "relative_strength": -2.794882, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.233297, "energy": 57.984925, "activity_lines": [ 39.659, 39.497909, 38.85, 38.304592 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.720001, "volume": 232785, "typical_volume": 121284.3, "trend": 37.827167, "fair_value": 32.986923, "relative_strength": -3.29298, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.285765, "energy": 67.598417, "activity_lines": [ 40.006334, 39.76091, 39.099477, 38.500861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }