{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0507a0f-6a02-4fe4-bbe9-dce61f8c54ac", "symbol": "AIR", "name": "AAR Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.579, "architecture_energy": 44.296, "architecture_maturity": 75.794, "architecture_confidence": 68.969, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.24, "rotation_up": 48.9, "upward_expansion": 76.88, "deceleration": 70.71, "rotation_down": 24.03, "downward_expansion": 5.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 137.930667, 137.039636, 129.360429, 124.427398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 143.06, "trend_reference": 118.690667, "distance_from_trend": 0.205318, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.427756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.847658, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.760791, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.26501, "excess_performance": 0.139385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.205318, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165714, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.847658, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198815, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.247608, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053844, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.26501, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.366615, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1752907, "relative_activity": 0.805175, "balance": 1.366615, "dry_up": 1.101301, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087502, "annualized_volatility": 0.406749, "from_high_reference": -0.071039, "from_low_reference": 0.996093 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 118.690667, "fair_value_reference": 77.427756, "structural_low": 99.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.002415, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009697, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.254115, "worst_return": -0.188974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.094732, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.004909, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.265872, "worst_return": -0.175178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.110963, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.093912, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.512101, "worst_return": -0.08742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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25.00674, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.121115, "energy": 80.171261, "activity_lines": [ 137.798667, 130.306727, 122.684524, 118.678366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 135.34, "volume": 2125618, "typical_volume": 2191551.65, "trend": 113.837333, "fair_value": 75.929038, "relative_strength": 25.861914, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.793091, "energy": 72.940014, "activity_lines": [ 137.391333, 132.317273, 124.366714, 120.178817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 129.05, "volume": 3748313, "typical_volume": 2269512.95, "trend": 115.303333, "fair_value": 76.382564, "relative_strength": 19.871647, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.364827, "energy": 44.841078, "activity_lines": [ 134.465333, 132.864909, 125.363333, 121.16028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 140.04, "volume": 1963517, "typical_volume": 2266208.75, "trend": 117.156333, "fair_value": 76.895897, "relative_strength": 27.512184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.518763, "energy": 43.498221, "activity_lines": [ 135.591333, 134.965273, 127.308857, 122.756194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 143.06, "volume": 1752907, "typical_volume": 2177050.75, "trend": 118.690667, "fair_value": 77.427756, "relative_strength": 24.760791, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.578544, "energy": 44.296097, "activity_lines": [ 137.930667, 137.039636, 129.360429, 124.427398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }