{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c05113c0-0d38-4a8a-8271-9adbf76176cb", "symbol": "CREX", "name": "Creative Realities Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.155, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.915, "architecture_energy": 53.827, "architecture_maturity": 14.714, "architecture_confidence": 78.074, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.74, "rotation_up": 19.04, "upward_expansion": 19.85, "deceleration": 42.7, "rotation_down": 68.59, "downward_expansion": 56.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.201333, 3.476909, 3.622429, 3.622839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.02, "trend_reference": 3.590667, "distance_from_trend": -0.158931, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.095481, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024384, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.095552, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05625, "excess_performance": -0.243704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082559, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024384, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247875, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519828, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146073, "relative_activity": 0.845118, "balance": 0.519828, "dry_up": 0.902818, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16174, "annualized_volatility": 0.444764, "from_high_reference": -0.317082, "from_low_reference": 0.381013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.590667, "fair_value_reference": 3.095481, "structural_low": 2.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.042735, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00555, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.20082, "worst_return": -0.205128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005128, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039337, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.239316, "worst_return": -0.298551, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.551282, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.507621, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.133333, "worst_return": -0.078261, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.589298, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.367851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.364103, "worst_return": -0.185507, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126404, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.470395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013793, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.188506, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.243728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006289, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115152, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17094, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.307143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.07, "volume": 1095549, "typical_volume": 255784.25, "trend": 2.56928, "fair_value": 3.415049, "relative_strength": -20.384987, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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33.963218, "activity_lines": [ 3.956667, 3.902364, 3.81881, 3.717247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.46, "volume": 264560, "typical_volume": 177618.15, "trend": 3.564833, "fair_value": 3.098301, "relative_strength": -1.474906, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.560344, "energy": 12.449038, "activity_lines": [ 3.804667, 3.830909, 3.792238, 3.712011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.2, "volume": 91464, "typical_volume": 171458.8, "trend": 3.582833, "fair_value": 3.093814, "relative_strength": -7.224427, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.765789, "energy": 18.112649, "activity_lines": [ 3.576, 3.716909, 3.741095, 3.688473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.14, "volume": 122087, "typical_volume": 173172.15, "trend": 3.5945, "fair_value": 3.093878, "relative_strength": -9.410545, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.791291, "energy": 30.3228, "activity_lines": [ 3.376667, 3.602, 3.686286, 3.659903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.02, "volume": 146073, "typical_volume": 172843.3, "trend": 3.590667, "fair_value": 3.095481, "relative_strength": -17.095552, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.915329, "energy": 53.827349, "activity_lines": [ 3.201333, 3.476909, 3.622429, 3.622839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }