{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0552009-e6ab-44cc-b56b-4471f8fc273d", "symbol": "MTVFR", "name": "Mondo TV France Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.02, "architecture_energy": 69.558, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.929, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.94, "rotation_up": 29.91, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.22, "rotation_down": 54.58, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003767, 0.003945, 0.004912, 0.007269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.011333, "distance_from_trend": -0.735294, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.093913, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.968056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -87.854762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.87234, "excess_performance": -1.043232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.735294, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.399293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.968056, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01618, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.878548, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019775, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.87234, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.730249, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13540800, "relative_activity": 4.608646, "balance": 0.730249, "dry_up": 2.519358, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.397436, "annualized_volatility": 1.229195, "from_high_reference": -0.933333, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.011333, "fair_value_reference": 0.093913, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.04698, "positive_rate": 0.183673, "directional_follow_through": 0.77551, "median_excess_return": -0.051521, "regime_survival": 0.938776, "best_return": 0.489796, "worst_return": -0.515152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.165414, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.208932, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.811321, "worst_return": -0.761905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.289157, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.298805, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.52381, "worst_return": -0.65678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.39991, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.486857, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.528302, "worst_return": -0.759877, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-09-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048485, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-10-01", "end": "2023-01-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.550633, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-01-20", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-02-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-03-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-03-17", "end": "2023-04-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164557, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-06-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089552, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.315068, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082474, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.05618, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.981928, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.11, "volume": 89700, "typical_volume": 398710.0, "trend": 0.146533, "fair_value": 0.251038, "relative_strength": -31.448578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"relative_strength": -84.542975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.239738, "energy": 66.055399, "activity_lines": [ 0.003933, 0.004227, 0.005626, 0.008382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0045, "volume": 1333800, "typical_volume": 2337465.0, "trend": 0.012033, "fair_value": 0.094625, "relative_strength": -82.014189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.122603, "energy": 63.789179, "activity_lines": [ 0.0041, 0.004218, 0.005312, 0.007852 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 13540800, "typical_volume": 2938130.0, "trend": 0.011333, "fair_value": 0.093913, "relative_strength": -87.854762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.019741, "energy": 69.558251, "activity_lines": [ 0.003767, 0.003945, 0.004912, 0.007269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }