{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0572212-e96c-4da3-a550-d89d66741c0c", "symbol": "SPWH", "name": "Sportsmans", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.811, "architecture_energy": 58.77, "architecture_maturity": 14.177, "architecture_confidence": 95.716, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.85, "rotation_up": 13.1, "upward_expansion": 12.95, "deceleration": 38.09, "rotation_down": 62.8, "downward_expansion": 86.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.158667, 1.198364, 1.261476, 1.287376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.18, "trend_reference": 1.314333, "distance_from_trend": -0.102206, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.61585, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.548904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.992848, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.144928, "excess_performance": -0.332381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102206, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106706, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.548904, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.419928, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036151, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144928, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.421579, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2430509, "relative_activity": 0.775784, "balance": 0.421579, "dry_up": 0.631689, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127757, "annualized_volatility": 0.471087, "from_high_reference": -0.678229, "from_low_reference": 0.092593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.314333, "fair_value_reference": 2.61585, "structural_low": 1.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.006061, "positive_rate": 0.512195, "directional_follow_through": 0.487805, "median_excess_return": 0.005853, "regime_survival": 0.829268, "best_return": 0.494898, "worst_return": -0.454397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.11409, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.123777, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.379562, "worst_return": -0.470852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.253632, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.310964, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": -0.053015, "worst_return": -0.443931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230189, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.021858, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.94709, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033994, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.244648, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059406, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.318386, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.22, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053571, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.26, "volume": 1517199, "typical_volume": 3162786.35, "trend": 6.967667, "fair_value": 12.273205, "relative_strength": -33.505231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.967725, "energy": 25.409559, "activity_lines": [ 1.27, 1.283091, 1.329333, 1.334344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.17, "volume": 2618482, "typical_volume": 3229482.0, "trend": 1.339333, "fair_value": 2.711106, "relative_strength": -45.193867, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.737331, "energy": 41.80072, "activity_lines": [ 1.234667, 1.258364, 1.313143, 1.322946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.12, "volume": 1210774, "typical_volume": 3018817.15, "trend": 1.331333, "fair_value": 2.679247, "relative_strength": -45.171725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.156308, "energy": 54.757999, "activity_lines": [ 1.186667, 1.230182, 1.292238, 1.308796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.14, "volume": 1656489, "typical_volume": 3064655.0, "trend": 1.320667, "fair_value": 2.647645, "relative_strength": -42.928415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.7728, "energy": 61.877016, "activity_lines": [ 1.162, 1.209273, 1.274524, 1.296452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.18, "volume": 2430509, "typical_volume": 3132971.3, "trend": 1.314333, "fair_value": 2.61585, "relative_strength": -41.992848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.810688, "energy": 58.770021, "activity_lines": [ 1.158667, 1.198364, 1.261476, 1.287376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }