{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c05b3adb-d918-4511-97df-ad50c0d917f1", "symbol": "URNU", "name": "Global X Uranium UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.597, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.441, "architecture_energy": 63.809, "architecture_maturity": 17.086, "architecture_confidence": 89.79, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.73, "rotation_up": 15.1, "upward_expansion": 12.55, "deceleration": 42.38, "rotation_down": 68.77, "downward_expansion": 88.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.839667, 22.331545, 23.96131, 24.82671 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.645, "trend_reference": 25.942833, "distance_from_trend": -0.088573, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.163532, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.301784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.713777, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.106049, "excess_performance": -0.276941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005774, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.301784, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.413525, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187138, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.287413, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106049, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.404845, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76044, "relative_activity": 0.69149, "balance": 0.404845, "dry_up": 0.648802, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085447, "annualized_volatility": 0.426421, "from_high_reference": -0.265455, "from_low_reference": 0.34576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.942833, "fair_value_reference": 18.163532, "structural_low": 19.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.145877, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.076684, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.329389, "worst_return": -0.087657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.513784, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.410006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.716578, "worst_return": 0.310989, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.870559, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.663356, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.41031, "worst_return": 0.330809, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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17.716481, "relative_strength": -17.817375, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.10524, "energy": 60.802503, "activity_lines": [ 24.299667, 25.346, 26.225667, 26.469312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 23.395, "volume": 7043, "typical_volume": 123707.05, "trend": 26.317833, "fair_value": 17.802244, "relative_strength": -19.276297, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.875564, "energy": 70.59134, "activity_lines": [ 23.854333, 24.803818, 25.919881, 26.278473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.790001, "volume": 94074, "typical_volume": 120902.1, "trend": 26.311833, "fair_value": 17.882795, "relative_strength": -20.99235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.388544, "energy": 71.210317, "activity_lines": [ 23.419, 24.261728, 25.572738, 26.050871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.219999, "volume": 54376, "typical_volume": 117686.4, "trend": 26.216667, "fair_value": 17.946641, "relative_strength": -28.612346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.585851, "energy": 86.490134, "activity_lines": [ 22.254333, 23.362455, 25.005667, 25.657849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.5, "volume": 83509, "typical_volume": 114900.15, "trend": 26.162667, "fair_value": 18.018103, "relative_strength": -23.723533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.643937, "energy": 81.422084, "activity_lines": [ 21.778, 22.859909, 24.59869, 25.353548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.41, "volume": 71469, "typical_volume": 110687.25, "trend": 26.058333, "fair_value": 18.081487, "relative_strength": -27.884543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.484015, "energy": 85.750732, "activity_lines": [ 21.179, 22.250091, 24.111119, 24.982409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.645, "volume": 76044, "typical_volume": 109971.2, "trend": 25.942833, "fair_value": 18.163532, "relative_strength": -18.713777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.440881, "energy": 63.808838, "activity_lines": [ 21.839667, 22.331545, 23.96131, 24.82671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }