{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c05b5c3f-be26-46a8-96e8-73d8dd41b5df", "symbol": "ELECTHERM", "name": "Electrotherm (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.313, "architecture_energy": 24.436, "architecture_maturity": 71.09, "architecture_confidence": 94.037, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.37, "rotation_up": 23.99, "upward_expansion": 57.24, "deceleration": 91.04, "rotation_down": 28.86, "downward_expansion": 20.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 1017.013322, 1060.005451, 990.627851, 917.559026 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 995.299988, "trend_reference": 846.254995, "distance_from_trend": 0.176123, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 778.877242, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277865, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.860242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.267898, "excess_performance": 0.311607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.176123, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087359, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.197127, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.138602, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.263472, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.267898, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.35365, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 153543, "relative_activity": 1.118593, "balance": 1.35365, "dry_up": 0.701085, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132175, "annualized_volatility": 0.676166, "from_high_reference": -0.220595, "from_low_reference": 0.806352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 846.254995, "fair_value_reference": 778.877242, "structural_low": 551.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.07429, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.085024, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.779803, "worst_return": -0.106865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014116, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036895, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 1.863289, "worst_return": -0.122435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.142953, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.17345, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.815494, "worst_return": -0.347474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1066.62091, 929.851901, 870.923867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1052.099976, "volume": 91215, "typical_volume": 165763.4, "trend": 834.181663, "fair_value": 761.379807, "relative_strength": 22.428156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.350855, "energy": 55.561449, "activity_lines": [ 1112.813338, 1079.311816, 951.027614, 885.553758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1008.200012, "volume": 99812, "typical_volume": 165432.65, "trend": 838.106663, "fair_value": 767.30705, "relative_strength": 20.037325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.335233, "energy": 41.446709, "activity_lines": [ 1076.536674, 1078.682728, 966.429282, 896.780749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1007.599976, "volume": 40366, "typical_volume": 155337.6, "trend": 842.729995, "fair_value": 773.168909, "relative_strength": 16.651599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.279358, "energy": 30.941333, "activity_lines": [ 1044.42666, 1072.58727, 980.137375, 907.715801 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 995.299988, "volume": 153543, "typical_volume": 137264.35, "trend": 846.254995, "fair_value": 778.877242, "relative_strength": 13.860242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.313071, "energy": 24.436279, "activity_lines": [ 1017.013322, 1060.005451, 990.627851, 917.559026 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }