{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c05b8271-6df3-42b6-a6b9-12233f24c41e", "symbol": "VPYT", "name": "VanEck Pyth ETN", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.217, "architecture_energy": 26.154, "architecture_maturity": 93.451, "architecture_confidence": 78.358, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.43, "rotation_up": 32.65, "upward_expansion": 23.79, "deceleration": 41.32, "rotation_down": 31.26, "downward_expansion": 57.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.089467, 1.082182, 1.102771, 1.155798 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.989, "trend_reference": 1.242167, "distance_from_trend": -0.203811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.892652, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.745932, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.789037, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174457, "excess_performance": -0.227769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189539, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.745932, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035526, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.53789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019577, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174457, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.674931, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4000, "relative_activity": 1.968601, "balance": 2.674931, "dry_up": 0.50593, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09839, "annualized_volatility": 0.617214, "from_high_reference": -0.838028, "from_low_reference": 0.044351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.242167, "fair_value_reference": 3.892652, "structural_low": 0.947, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.115385, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.160469, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.113546, "worst_return": -0.25242, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.263589, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 11.167, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 10.581, "volume": 2637, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", 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"volume": 10746, "typical_volume": 1832.8, "trend": 1.309367, "fair_value": 4.018557, "relative_strength": -49.805861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.439293, "energy": 59.182447, "activity_lines": [ 1.048933, 1.052255, 1.125852, 1.199432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.254, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 1833.1, "trend": 1.3008, "fair_value": 3.987494, "relative_strength": -42.635751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.378091, "energy": 21.069913, "activity_lines": [ 1.122933, 1.082091, 1.13069, 1.19586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.221, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1838.1, "trend": 1.2886, "fair_value": 3.956756, "relative_strength": -43.281302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.468355, "energy": 26.577247, "activity_lines": [ 1.169267, 1.106055, 1.133414, 1.190712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.027, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 1838.4, "trend": 1.268567, "fair_value": 3.92456, "relative_strength": -51.97836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.205064, "energy": 31.874081, "activity_lines": [ 1.136467, 1.096964, 1.118848, 1.173834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.989, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 2031.9, "trend": 1.242167, "fair_value": 3.892652, "relative_strength": -53.789037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.21699, "energy": 26.154155, "activity_lines": [ 1.089467, 1.082182, 1.102771, 1.155798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }