{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c05f3393-7516-4868-b266-6dfdd035f8a2", "symbol": "600658", "name": "Beijing Electronic Zone High-tech Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.45, "architecture_energy": 53.439, "architecture_maturity": 42.982, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.94, "rotation_up": 22.4, "upward_expansion": 8.6, "deceleration": 55.15, "rotation_down": 54.43, "downward_expansion": 79.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.864667, 3.912, 4.248857, 4.456473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.95, "trend_reference": 4.768667, "distance_from_trend": -0.171676, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.614551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144012, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.255294, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.241843, "excess_performance": -0.198639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171676, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101833, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144012, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2675, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242553, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15608, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.241843, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.493532, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63612500, "relative_activity": 0.941795, "balance": 0.493532, "dry_up": 0.933451, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095034, "annualized_volatility": 0.324322, "from_high_reference": -0.55618, "from_low_reference": 0.11898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.768667, "fair_value_reference": 4.614551, "structural_low": 3.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.009921, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.001832, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.456081, "worst_return": -0.243056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002513, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.000432, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.83871, "worst_return": -0.138889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.141861, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.130476, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.583333, "worst_return": -0.179954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020179, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102564, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102317, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03964, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"typical_volume": 65951914.75, "trend": 4.991667, "fair_value": 4.662115, "relative_strength": -25.337628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.3181, "energy": 80.518011, "activity_lines": [ 3.996667, 4.251636, 4.549762, 4.735183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.8, "volume": 67189490, "typical_volume": 66738697.55, "trend": 4.937667, "fair_value": 4.651026, "relative_strength": -24.885866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.263831, "energy": 84.608707, "activity_lines": [ 3.913333, 4.120909, 4.462048, 4.658301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.61, "volume": 63068195, "typical_volume": 66415157.45, "trend": 4.870667, "fair_value": 4.636923, "relative_strength": -29.232663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.535517, "energy": 79.261598, "activity_lines": [ 3.803333, 3.983091, 4.363143, 4.572645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.94, "volume": 58325290, "typical_volume": 66973472.7, "trend": 4.82, "fair_value": 4.626282, "relative_strength": -22.823428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.728028, "energy": 57.287034, "activity_lines": [ 3.837333, 3.936182, 4.303048, 4.512602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.95, "volume": 63612500, "typical_volume": 67543871.35, "trend": 4.768667, "fair_value": 4.614551, "relative_strength": -24.255294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.450339, "energy": 53.439208, "activity_lines": [ 3.864667, 3.912, 4.248857, 4.456473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }