{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c068c10a-8bb9-4d21-8532-20a82d0e1db7", "symbol": "001965", "name": "China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.108, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.718, "architecture_energy": 14.004, "architecture_maturity": 16.899, "architecture_confidence": 63.984, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.43, "rotation_up": 46.52, "upward_expansion": 29.91, "deceleration": 38.19, "rotation_down": 25.93, "downward_expansion": 26.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.694863, 9.572556, 9.57735, 9.587326 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.44, "trend_reference": 9.597643, "distance_from_trend": -0.016425, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.539725, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104341, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.822399, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006397, "excess_performance": -0.001003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016425, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018177, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104341, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01619, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192604, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006397, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.590289, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77039307, "relative_activity": 1.374321, "balance": 4.590289, "dry_up": 1.336359, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056856, "annualized_volatility": 0.265089, "from_high_reference": -0.179844, "from_low_reference": 0.090069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.597643, "fair_value_reference": 10.539725, "structural_low": 8.66, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.01897, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.025561, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.137519, "worst_return": -0.118577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006065, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045745, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.17932, "worst_return": -0.08567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002065, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.115512, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.234519, "worst_return": -0.165457, "sufficient": false }, 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"volume": 97939780, "typical_volume": 56441634.7, "trend": 9.618977, "fair_value": 10.532677, "relative_strength": 3.066987, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.503393, "energy": 17.468542, "activity_lines": [ 9.731561, 9.601998, 9.589823, 9.598873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.44, "volume": 77039307, "typical_volume": 56056252.2, "trend": 9.597643, "fair_value": 10.539725, "relative_strength": -7.822399, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.718086, "energy": 14.003888, "activity_lines": [ 9.694863, 9.572556, 9.57735, 9.587326 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }