{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c06c970b-4deb-4c2f-8228-8a32f9e5ad60", "symbol": "ENCO", "name": "L&G Multi-Strategy Enhanced Commodities UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.33, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.596, "architecture_energy": 38.087, "architecture_maturity": 9.779, "architecture_confidence": 47.69, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.11, "rotation_up": 64.6, "upward_expansion": 68.5, "deceleration": 57.88, "rotation_down": 10.16, "downward_expansion": 11.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.837867, 15.623855, 15.682105, 15.548908 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.752, "trend_reference": 15.1652, "distance_from_trend": 0.038694, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.227308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19087, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.2292, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.171327, "excess_performance": 0.000435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038694, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062654, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19087, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042679, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096419, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.171327, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.735393, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28831, "relative_activity": 0.318467, "balance": 0.735393, "dry_up": 0.627208, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028587, "annualized_volatility": 0.203786, "from_high_reference": -0.059807, "from_low_reference": 0.297529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.1652, "fair_value_reference": 13.227308, "structural_low": 13.178, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.00766, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.023953, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.146092, "worst_return": -0.061279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023776, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.063222, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.172971, "worst_return": -0.032912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.046029, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.176442, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.208098, "worst_return": -0.063538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 15.1536, 15.426618, 15.582638, 15.297527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.82, "volume": 73697, "typical_volume": 92150.4, "trend": 14.863133, "fair_value": 13.165449, "relative_strength": -0.407481, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.813601, "energy": 18.807255, "activity_lines": [ 15.3624, 15.455418, 15.611105, 15.366168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.190001, "volume": 67065, "typical_volume": 94474.15, "trend": 14.9772, "fair_value": 13.18718, "relative_strength": 2.020622, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.762936, "energy": 30.640816, "activity_lines": [ 15.673467, 15.554146, 15.66541, 15.451772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.812, "volume": 57533, "typical_volume": 92163.0, "trend": 15.0812, "fair_value": 13.207756, "relative_strength": -1.027471, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.199644, "energy": 34.60997, "activity_lines": [ 15.7964, 15.589309, 15.676572, 15.50563 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.752, "volume": 28831, "typical_volume": 90530.55, "trend": 15.1652, "fair_value": 13.227308, "relative_strength": -4.2292, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.596211, "energy": 38.086834, "activity_lines": [ 15.837867, 15.623855, 15.682105, 15.548908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }