{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c079a37d-7605-4305-be42-b10ac868d26f", "symbol": "1440", "name": "Tainan Spinning Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 80.914, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.521, "architecture_energy": 8.639, "architecture_maturity": 20.909, "architecture_confidence": 39.393, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.77, "rotation_up": 26.35, "upward_expansion": 24.33, "deceleration": 65.01, "rotation_down": 34.02, "downward_expansion": 24.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.883333, 12.951169, 12.798388, 12.740186 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.55, "trend_reference": 12.757658, "distance_from_trend": 0.062107, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.882069, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.023921, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.07171, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.034263, "excess_performance": -0.407109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062107, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006948, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.023921, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175632, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159999, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034263, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.224298, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16176233, "relative_activity": 1.124893, "balance": 2.224298, "dry_up": 0.721409, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085118, "annualized_volatility": 0.376869, "from_high_reference": -0.125607, "from_low_reference": 0.231922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.757658, "fair_value_reference": 13.882069, "structural_low": 10.999071, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.003543, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.043379, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125402, "worst_return": -0.184028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.017493, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.092036, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.313531, "worst_return": -0.172557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007782, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.156787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.158416, "worst_return": -0.204, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014981, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007782, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130952, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018382, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"typical_volume": 13925329.55, "trend": 12.773141, "fair_value": 13.9158, "relative_strength": -29.54701, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.717246, "energy": 12.677323, "activity_lines": [ 13.044808, 13.04899, 12.750452, 12.734414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.15, "volume": 10437128, "typical_volume": 14139796.45, "trend": 12.746326, "fair_value": 13.901395, "relative_strength": -31.192322, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.724873, "energy": 10.118538, "activity_lines": [ 12.722144, 12.916299, 12.705327, 12.694212 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.65, "volume": 6539015, "typical_volume": 13851494.55, "trend": 12.741066, "fair_value": 13.888997, "relative_strength": -29.294486, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.201351, "energy": 8.499263, "activity_lines": [ 12.603482, 12.85537, 12.708625, 12.687997 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.55, "volume": 16176233, "typical_volume": 14380246.75, "trend": 12.757658, "fair_value": 13.882069, "relative_strength": -26.07171, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.521306, "energy": 8.639309, "activity_lines": [ 12.883333, 12.951169, 12.798388, 12.740186 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }