{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c07c5d84-1780-4024-910b-5f641d188c82", "symbol": "ZURA", "name": "Zura Bio Limited Class A Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.579, "architecture_energy": 37.568, "architecture_maturity": 12.845, "architecture_confidence": 87.264, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.32, "rotation_up": 68.55, "upward_expansion": 47.87, "deceleration": 23.94, "rotation_down": 14.68, "downward_expansion": 18.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.549667, 5.244909, 4.970905, 5.139957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.965, "trend_reference": 5.371167, "distance_from_trend": 0.110559, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.752692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.589525, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.863888, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007488, "excess_performance": -0.194941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110559, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038576, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.589525, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.379469, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.148639, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043264, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007488, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932297, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3515601, "relative_activity": 0.80446, "balance": 0.932297, "dry_up": 0.726551, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122755, "annualized_volatility": 0.739399, "from_high_reference": -0.198253, "from_low_reference": 3.291367 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.371167, "fair_value_reference": 3.752692, "structural_low": 3.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.164464, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.207114, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.209945, "worst_return": -0.334388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.08826, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.271016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0279, "worst_return": -0.20442, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.462531, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.548983, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.273128, "worst_return": -0.651934, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.372344, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.690407, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.352423, "worst_return": -0.392265, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.34, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121795, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.18, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.209945, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.310044, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117216, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.545139, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052356, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.906863, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 4348293.0, "trend": 5.327667, "fair_value": 3.774712, "relative_strength": 13.910303, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.314109, "energy": 24.47228, "activity_lines": [ 5.176667, 4.731636, 4.835333, 5.100774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.23, "volume": 2710121, "typical_volume": 4367159.8, "trend": 5.347, "fair_value": 3.763365, "relative_strength": 9.633868, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.133572, "energy": 20.604977, "activity_lines": [ 5.264667, 4.858727, 4.844143, 5.094473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.43, "volume": 2263450, "typical_volume": 4369526.45, "trend": 5.343, "fair_value": 3.758301, "relative_strength": 11.611303, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.3903, "energy": 18.515757, "activity_lines": [ 5.320667, 5.012909, 4.880286, 5.099828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.965, "volume": 3515601, "typical_volume": 4370135.6, "trend": 5.371167, "fair_value": 3.752692, "relative_strength": 14.863888, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.579298, "energy": 37.567642, "activity_lines": [ 5.549667, 5.244909, 4.970905, 5.139957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }