{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0833403-7ce0-4f45-9fcb-f113fac0ca76", "symbol": "MGX", "name": "Metagenomi, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.201, "architecture_energy": 36.833, "architecture_maturity": 77.034, "architecture_confidence": 92.925, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.9, "rotation_up": 22.27, "upward_expansion": 4.39, "deceleration": 51.12, "rotation_down": 47.17, "downward_expansion": 75.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.218333, 1.227818, 1.270476, 1.312366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.23, "trend_reference": 1.380167, "distance_from_trend": -0.108803, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.064237, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.598595, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.199521, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.201299, "excess_performance": -0.388752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108803, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11129, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.598595, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030672, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.361995, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010675, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.201299, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.998775, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 611382, "relative_activity": 0.717316, "balance": 0.998775, "dry_up": 0.916035, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094934, "annualized_volatility": 0.28368, "from_high_reference": -0.688608, "from_low_reference": 0.088496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.380167, "fair_value_reference": 3.064237, "structural_low": 1.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038961, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.064427, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.02963, "worst_return": -0.139665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.15438, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.236196, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.07971, "worst_return": -0.22905, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.290503, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.449705, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.290503, "worst_return": -0.290503, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 958434.05, "trend": 1.431333, "fair_value": 3.107734, "relative_strength": -36.133579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.774558, "energy": 34.097032, "activity_lines": [ 1.250667, 1.255818, 1.305762, 1.352366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.205, "volume": 1012011, "typical_volume": 943170.0, "trend": 1.414833, "fair_value": 3.092984, "relative_strength": -35.80413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.058627, "energy": 35.721691, "activity_lines": [ 1.237667, 1.243636, 1.292381, 1.337763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.19, "volume": 483362, "typical_volume": 870647.55, "trend": 1.398833, "fair_value": 3.078346, "relative_strength": -35.894787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.547601, "energy": 39.11701, "activity_lines": [ 1.219333, 1.230636, 1.278881, 1.323258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.23, "volume": 611382, "typical_volume": 852318.5, "trend": 1.380167, "fair_value": 3.064237, "relative_strength": -36.199521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.201012, "energy": 36.832556, "activity_lines": [ 1.218333, 1.227818, 1.270476, 1.312366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }