{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0869f45-b40d-4621-8ba6-b0467d440683", "symbol": "PFI", "name": "Property For Industry Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.954, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.712, "architecture_energy": 17.603, "architecture_maturity": 40.847, "architecture_confidence": 79.355, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.42, "rotation_up": 19.75, "upward_expansion": 51.45, "deceleration": 92.69, "rotation_down": 32.65, "downward_expansion": 19.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.375333, 2.389818, 2.38292, 2.360089 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.36, "trend_reference": 2.332191, "distance_from_trend": 0.011924, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.152787, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096253, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.11111, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075141, "excess_performance": 0.046867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011924, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096253, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007249, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042718, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075141, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.977725, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1133396, "relative_activity": 1.088576, "balance": 0.977725, "dry_up": 0.908536, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027993, "annualized_volatility": 0.183997, "from_high_reference": -0.082967, "from_low_reference": 0.102493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.332191, "fair_value_reference": 2.152787, "structural_low": 2.140604, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014071, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.006076, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.010381, "worst_return": -0.063559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.012081, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012216, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.003837, "worst_return": -0.020325, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.039118, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.012713, "worst_return": -0.065523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2.330783 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.42, "volume": 86548, "typical_volume": 1382600.8, "trend": 2.324895, "fair_value": 2.143565, "relative_strength": 1.763257, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.170296, "energy": 47.236584, "activity_lines": [ 2.412, 2.402467, 2.357106, 2.336939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.41, "volume": 119594, "typical_volume": 1314067.15, "trend": 2.3252, "fair_value": 2.145532, "relative_strength": 0.38396, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.909867, "energy": 43.334115, "activity_lines": [ 2.414, 2.406923, 2.365095, 2.342429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.41, "volume": 1144927, "typical_volume": 1301109.1, "trend": 2.325832, "fair_value": 2.147098, "relative_strength": -0.795416, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.890216, "energy": 44.691459, "activity_lines": [ 2.414, 2.409545, 2.372247, 2.3479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.39, "volume": 710116, "typical_volume": 1230161.6, "trend": 2.329717, "fair_value": 2.148536, "relative_strength": -0.98056, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.109743, "energy": 28.399119, "activity_lines": [ 2.406667, 2.407236, 2.376331, 2.35204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.4, "volume": 917052, "typical_volume": 1231749.55, "trend": 2.332301, "fair_value": 2.149981, "relative_strength": -1.143469, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.768986, "energy": 24.362016, "activity_lines": [ 2.402, 2.405455, 2.381232, 2.356575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.36, "volume": 1023209, "typical_volume": 1068883.35, "trend": 2.333226, "fair_value": 2.151284, "relative_strength": -2.250515, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.705572, "energy": 17.485806, "activity_lines": [ 2.386667, 2.396909, 2.382174, 2.358362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.36, "volume": 1133396, "typical_volume": 1041173.5, "trend": 2.332191, "fair_value": 2.152787, "relative_strength": -3.11111, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.712055, "energy": 17.60292, "activity_lines": [ 2.375333, 2.389818, 2.38292, 2.360089 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }