{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c087953a-a1f4-4f34-b824-8d8243a2e7b8", "symbol": "600117", "name": "Xining Special Steel.Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.61, "architecture_energy": 30.5, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.788, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.21, "rotation_up": 27.21, "upward_expansion": 16.62, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 32.66, "downward_expansion": 64.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.236, 2.210364, 2.284524, 2.389871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.27, "trend_reference": 2.542333, "distance_from_trend": -0.107119, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.669359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149609, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.116747, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.217241, "excess_performance": -0.174038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107119, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088116, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149609, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117824, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029356, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217241, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.74685, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78769018, "relative_activity": 1.299309, "balance": 0.74685, "dry_up": 1.201926, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070485, "annualized_volatility": 0.308876, "from_high_reference": -0.561776, "from_low_reference": 0.112745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.542333, "fair_value_reference": 2.669359, "structural_low": 2.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.018922, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.009368, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.427136, "worst_return": -0.190231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.030184, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.052255, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.586854, "worst_return": -0.199495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.140606, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.557604, "worst_return": -0.250871, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004566, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008584, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118421, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-05", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -67.031118, "energy": 77.18151, "activity_lines": [ 2.158667, 2.225273, 2.365571, 2.483333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.22, "volume": 88624408, "typical_volume": 77131199.0, "trend": 2.604, "fair_value": 2.682372, "relative_strength": -19.967273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.462501, "energy": 60.172862, "activity_lines": [ 2.172667, 2.211273, 2.33881, 2.457398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.15, "volume": 60572605, "typical_volume": 72918250.8, "trend": 2.581333, "fair_value": 2.677179, "relative_strength": -23.305226, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.129116, "energy": 55.17254, "activity_lines": [ 2.166667, 2.192182, 2.309238, 2.428108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.28, "volume": 63495177, "typical_volume": 68154690.6, "trend": 2.561333, "fair_value": 2.673077, "relative_strength": -18.059703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.66141, "energy": 38.697586, "activity_lines": [ 2.210667, 2.201818, 2.29581, 2.408667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.27, "volume": 78769018, "typical_volume": 60623795.75, "trend": 2.542333, "fair_value": 2.669359, "relative_strength": -19.116747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.610284, "energy": 30.50003, "activity_lines": [ 2.236, 2.210364, 2.284524, 2.389871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }