{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c08836df-bb12-44e0-bb80-c16d024e7913", "symbol": "002397", "name": "Hunan Mendale Hometextile Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.201, "architecture_energy": 79.178, "architecture_maturity": 18.997, "architecture_confidence": 86.328, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.19, "rotation_up": 8.77, "upward_expansion": 18.74, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 77.71, "downward_expansion": 94.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.407333, 3.628545, 4.044048, 4.136022 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.44, "trend_reference": 4.233667, "distance_from_trend": -0.187466, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.439359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.000186, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.74113, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.226966, "excess_performance": -0.234366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.187466, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.000186, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.626871, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187411, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304704, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.226966, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.216758, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68817963, "relative_activity": 0.729571, "balance": 0.216758, "dry_up": 0.864301, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126565, "annualized_volatility": 0.438991, "from_high_reference": -0.417936, "from_low_reference": 0.135314 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.233667, "fair_value_reference": 3.439359, "structural_low": 3.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.010879, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.010004, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.270115, "worst_return": -0.227273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043228, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.089265, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.396825, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.063928, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.067893, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.94709, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 3.41, "volume": 85194446, "typical_volume": 93747301.1, "trend": 4.305, "fair_value": 3.442821, "relative_strength": -17.292783, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.743765, "energy": 64.200459, "activity_lines": [ 3.772, 4.066545, 4.300714, 4.313462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.2, "volume": 92715074, "typical_volume": 93455299.8, "trend": 4.272, "fair_value": 3.440321, "relative_strength": -22.278957, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.58177, "energy": 80.898769, "activity_lines": [ 3.538, 3.855455, 4.195429, 4.242172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.44, "volume": 79378892, "typical_volume": 94219928.9, "trend": 4.253333, "fair_value": 3.440321, "relative_strength": -14.847739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.636221, "energy": 78.173379, "activity_lines": [ 3.451333, 3.725273, 4.118143, 4.188495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.44, "volume": 68817963, "typical_volume": 94326567.75, "trend": 4.233667, "fair_value": 3.439359, "relative_strength": -18.74113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.200734, "energy": 79.17787, "activity_lines": [ 3.407333, 3.628545, 4.044048, 4.136022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }