{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c089b526-7471-4c2a-82ca-19a3d1870a62", "symbol": "226980", "name": "KODEX 200 Mid-Small", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.907, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.188, "architecture_energy": 56.962, "architecture_maturity": 15.384, "architecture_confidence": 82.755, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.18, "rotation_up": 11.08, "upward_expansion": 9.93, "deceleration": 44.34, "rotation_down": 71.23, "downward_expansion": 85.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 21634.932162, 22367.629759, 24132.901963, 24517.3479 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22270.0, "trend_reference": 24534.510938, "distance_from_trend": -0.092299, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16001.294171, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.391762, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.417038, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014106, "excess_performance": -0.243934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092299, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04531, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.391762, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.587771, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025451, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014106, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.312319, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76177, "relative_activity": 1.001783, "balance": 0.312319, "dry_up": 2.151358, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103179, "annualized_volatility": 0.400226, "from_high_reference": -0.25281, "from_low_reference": 0.319248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24534.510938, "fair_value_reference": 16001.294171, "structural_low": 18543.346213, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.030634, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.044589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.030634, "worst_return": -0.030634, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.099648, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025177, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.099648, "worst_return": -0.099648, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.101127, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.02167, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.101127, "worst_return": -0.101127, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 66.70724, "activity_lines": [ 21571.021615, 22614.853906, 24412.45639, 24658.552096 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22270.0, "volume": 76177, "typical_volume": 76041.4, "trend": 24534.510938, "fair_value": 16001.294171, "relative_strength": -18.417038, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.18841, "energy": 56.962449, "activity_lines": [ 21634.932162, 22367.629759, 24132.901963, 24517.3479 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }