{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c08b2e76-7f11-413a-a5b4-ff01130f627e", "symbol": "ACE32", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy ESG Enhanced E", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.917, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.391, "architecture_energy": 18.014, "architecture_maturity": 48.439, "architecture_confidence": 77.94, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.97, "rotation_up": 20.6, "upward_expansion": 52.25, "deceleration": 93.74, "rotation_down": 30.93, "downward_expansion": 20.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.661067, 10.672109, 10.659057, 10.647273 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.66, "trend_reference": 10.645, "distance_from_trend": 0.001409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.48482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016708, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.10469, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004854, "excess_performance": -0.175746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000984, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.016708, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000682, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004854, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.163881, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 794, "relative_activity": 0.475122, "balance": 4.163881, "dry_up": 0.180863, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003911, "annualized_volatility": 0.039122, "from_high_reference": -0.008372, "from_low_reference": 0.024606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.645, "fair_value_reference": 10.48482, "structural_low": 10.404, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013115, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-13", "close": 10.224, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-20", "close": 10.232, "volume": 195, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-27", "close": 10.232, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 10.232, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, 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-12.048807, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.235783, "energy": 56.463687, "activity_lines": [ 10.688, 10.681309, 10.649619, 10.644886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.688, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11539.25, "trend": 10.645067, "fair_value": 10.481633, "relative_strength": -11.535384, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.695451, "energy": 67.122448, "activity_lines": [ 10.688, 10.685418, 10.655705, 10.647755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.622, "volume": 415, "typical_volume": 2105.2, "trend": 10.6444, "fair_value": 10.483051, "relative_strength": -12.274412, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.481689, "energy": 18.603029, "activity_lines": [ 10.666, 10.676, 10.655724, 10.646267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.66, "volume": 794, "typical_volume": 1671.15, "trend": 10.645, "fair_value": 10.48482, "relative_strength": -14.10469, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.390798, "energy": 18.014185, "activity_lines": [ 10.661067, 10.672109, 10.659057, 10.647273 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }