{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c09d402c-91c4-4001-84d5-1cecd914513c", "symbol": "XFVT", "name": "Xtrackers Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 77.384, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.344, "architecture_energy": 46.545, "architecture_maturity": 5.623, "architecture_confidence": 80.051, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.63, "rotation_up": 17.04, "upward_expansion": 25.74, "deceleration": 48.81, "rotation_down": 63.06, "downward_expansion": 48.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 2921.0, 2992.072727, 3046.314286, 3031.986022 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2963.0, "trend_reference": 3024.35, "distance_from_trend": -0.020285, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2399.481283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.23485, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.536135, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033484, "excess_performance": -0.017751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020285, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.23485, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153607, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187124, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033484, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48574, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9527, "relative_activity": 0.528126, "balance": 0.48574, "dry_up": 0.650027, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049123, "annualized_volatility": 0.264262, "from_high_reference": -0.237142, "from_low_reference": 0.467213 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3024.35, "fair_value_reference": 2399.481283, "structural_low": 2581.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018107, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.005, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.148203, "worst_return": -0.005782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.011796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.210819, "worst_return": -0.131771, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.035872, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091963, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.022596, "worst_return": -0.09434, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034461, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023344, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051501, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044242, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000323, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008948, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05531, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012874, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078922, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031147, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2381.25, "volume": 22384, "typical_volume": 23234.55, "trend": 2216.558333, "fair_value": 2731.958333, "relative_strength": 6.689991, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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13.165338, "energy": 8.968492, "activity_lines": [ 3079.833333, 3094.618182, 3086.078571, 3060.515054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2836.0, "volume": 17423, "typical_volume": 21147.3, "trend": 3037.916667, "fair_value": 2394.069424, "relative_strength": -11.284805, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.245335, "energy": 30.568945, "activity_lines": [ 2987.8, 3043.445455, 3067.17381, 3046.919355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2873.5, "volume": 9506, "typical_volume": 19301.35, "trend": 3030.05, "fair_value": 2396.567821, "relative_strength": -11.148214, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.276946, "energy": 46.878591, "activity_lines": [ 2926.333333, 3006.981818, 3052.745238, 3036.311828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2963.0, "volume": 9527, "typical_volume": 18039.25, "trend": 3024.35, "fair_value": 2399.481283, "relative_strength": -8.536135, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.343652, "energy": 46.544655, "activity_lines": [ 2921.0, 2992.072727, 3046.314286, 3031.986022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }