{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0a56277-0e4a-4668-b39a-494252ff69bd", "symbol": "T13", "name": "RH PetroGas Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.047, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.04, "architecture_energy": 27.982, "architecture_maturity": 65.942, "architecture_confidence": 72.725, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.0, "rotation_up": 37.88, "upward_expansion": 22.29, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 22.03, "downward_expansion": 56.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.165667, 0.159564, 0.165427, 0.171935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.164, "trend_reference": 0.174798, "distance_from_trend": -0.061774, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.167428, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020475, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.465451, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.081573, "excess_performance": -0.073262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061774, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020475, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194655, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194285, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081573, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.051987, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14498500, "relative_activity": 0.465123, "balance": 1.051987, "dry_up": 0.933342, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083021, "annualized_volatility": 0.606346, "from_high_reference": -0.405133, "from_low_reference": 0.171429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.174798, "fair_value_reference": 0.167428, "structural_low": 0.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.012511, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.015826, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.63399, "worst_return": -0.181821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.102269, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.057231, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.414467, "worst_return": -0.238892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00884, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043173, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.240882, "worst_return": -0.243094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 0.149733, 0.1536, 0.168149, 0.17267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.183, "volume": 56103700, "typical_volume": 42793850.0, "trend": 0.17404, "fair_value": 0.167983, "relative_strength": -9.810993, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.474827, "energy": 25.508521, "activity_lines": [ 0.161333, 0.157836, 0.168272, 0.173313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.163, "volume": 30325900, "typical_volume": 34861160.0, "trend": 0.17432, "fair_value": 0.167734, "relative_strength": -19.555893, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.520012, "energy": 26.064804, "activity_lines": [ 0.164, 0.158491, 0.166604, 0.172601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.164, "volume": 14498500, "typical_volume": 31171310.0, "trend": 0.174798, "fair_value": 0.167428, "relative_strength": -19.465451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.039624, "energy": 27.981615, "activity_lines": [ 0.165667, 0.159564, 0.165427, 0.171935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }