{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0a91574-18ac-4cc2-985e-f230ceaf9786", "symbol": "DEQ", "name": "Deutsche EuroShop AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.568, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.551, "architecture_energy": 27.807, "architecture_maturity": 47.892, "architecture_confidence": 79.095, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.81, "rotation_up": 25.67, "upward_expansion": 15.55, "deceleration": 45.84, "rotation_down": 33.5, "downward_expansion": 63.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.453333, 18.41841, 18.619733, 18.892123 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.42, "trend_reference": 19.197077, "distance_from_trend": -0.040479, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.415377, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057686, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.022001, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054415, "excess_performance": -0.228662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040479, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001833, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057686, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042286, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21022, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054415, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 12.105263, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19, "relative_activity": 1.088825, "balance": 12.105263, "dry_up": 3.567335, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027761, "annualized_volatility": 0.149789, "from_high_reference": -0.122857, "from_low_reference": 0.037162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.197077, "fair_value_reference": 17.415377, "structural_low": 17.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.000525, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.023734, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.123879, "worst_return": -0.097421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014419, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.10579, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.201773, "worst_return": -0.057159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.149564, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.042138, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.248646, "worst_return": -0.086028, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026558, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065369, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007337, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.094972, "energy": 9.472763, "activity_lines": [ 19.000474, 18.998289, 19.368445, 19.358217 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 19.292555, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.0, "trend": 19.250743, "fair_value": 17.162077, "relative_strength": -15.47381, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.339893, "energy": 8.060083, "activity_lines": [ 19.146831, 19.02403, 19.345403, 19.362103 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 19.15, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.0, "trend": 19.26841, "fair_value": 17.195095, "relative_strength": -18.019406, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.742253, "energy": 11.334448, "activity_lines": [ 19.193717, 19.037625, 19.307869, 19.355603 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 18.74, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.0, "trend": 19.283743, "fair_value": 17.226942, "relative_strength": -22.402507, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.34226, "energy": 12.937268, "activity_lines": [ 19.075424, 18.985947, 19.230953, 19.321512 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 17.799999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.0, "trend": 19.261077, "fair_value": 17.253805, "relative_strength": -24.173409, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.23452, "energy": 61.093782, "activity_lines": [ 18.635017, 18.780086, 19.066799, 19.225787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 19.24841, "fair_value": 17.282815, "relative_strength": -23.679084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.092704, "energy": 71.8627, "activity_lines": [ 18.400837, 18.671499, 18.948741, 19.15733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.120001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 19.237077, "fair_value": 17.311729, "relative_strength": -22.498216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.710352, "energy": 76.79112, "activity_lines": [ 18.228667, 18.557863, 18.833539, 19.08453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.5, "volume": 230, "typical_volume": 16.5, "trend": 19.22841, "fair_value": 17.341413, "relative_strength": -18.825064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.851005, "energy": 74.181012, "activity_lines": [ 18.261334, 18.520468, 18.767528, 19.036976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16.5, "trend": 19.21841, "fair_value": 17.367877, "relative_strength": -19.760669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.766496, "energy": 59.452247, "activity_lines": [ 18.310667, 18.47257, 18.705089, 18.984821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.58, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16.5, "trend": 19.21841, "fair_value": 17.393494, "relative_strength": -18.496233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.362813, "energy": 36.829164, "activity_lines": [ 18.434667, 18.457187, 18.66684, 18.943633 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.42, "volume": 19, "typical_volume": 17.45, "trend": 19.197077, "fair_value": 17.415377, "relative_strength": -21.022001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.551392, "energy": 27.806674, "activity_lines": [ 18.453333, 18.41841, 18.619733, 18.892123 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }