{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0b91b42-f8af-435d-8e2e-448165b61750", "symbol": "POSADASA", "name": "Grupo Posadas, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.475, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.897, "architecture_energy": 42.485, "architecture_maturity": 36.089, "architecture_confidence": 71.335, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.66, "rotation_up": 14.41, "upward_expansion": 20.26, "deceleration": 55.99, "rotation_down": 67.03, "downward_expansion": 47.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.493334, 28.772727, 29.067772, 28.904177 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.200001, "trend_reference": 28.589245, "distance_from_trend": -0.013615, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.039421, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.380931, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.026357, "excess_performance": 0.081023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013615, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013452, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064175, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029615, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026357, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.245915, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.245915, "dry_up": 0.463882, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0225, "annualized_volatility": 0.068146, "from_high_reference": -0.216667, "from_low_reference": 0.037553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.589245, "fair_value_reference": 27.039421, "structural_low": 27.475832, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.000885, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.032245, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.06746, "worst_return": -0.060077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003497, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.120543, "worst_return": -0.029463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005214, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.066907, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.133858, "worst_return": -0.109687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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28.571878, "fair_value": 26.927363, "relative_strength": -1.320343, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.540426, "energy": 23.087455, "activity_lines": [ 29.34, 29.554132, 29.233421, 28.905718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 608.55, "trend": 28.616095, "fair_value": 26.94537, "relative_strength": -0.090203, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.258369, "energy": 26.037834, "activity_lines": [ 29.166666, 29.442758, 29.247228, 28.933339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.6, "volume": 1224, "typical_volume": 669.75, "trend": 28.614034, "fair_value": 26.970316, "relative_strength": -1.331863, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.188459, "energy": 19.469676, "activity_lines": [ 28.926666, 29.264548, 29.217376, 28.9323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 669.75, "trend": 28.611972, "fair_value": 26.995261, "relative_strength": -0.711971, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.272691, "energy": 19.953793, "activity_lines": [ 28.78, 29.103636, 29.183865, 28.931395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 669.75, "trend": 28.609911, "fair_value": 27.020207, "relative_strength": -1.255756, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.260735, "energy": 22.097411, "activity_lines": [ 28.68, 28.961818, 29.146696, 28.930623 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 659.65, "trend": 28.589245, "fair_value": 27.039421, "relative_strength": -2.380931, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.896697, "energy": 42.484604, "activity_lines": [ 28.493334, 28.772727, 29.067772, 28.904177 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }