{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c0ba2519-b393-42b0-a1a5-b5c7a6417f4e", "symbol": "QBTL", "name": "AGF US Market Neutral Anti-Beta CAD-Hedged ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.134, "architecture_energy": 29.094, "architecture_maturity": 94.662, "architecture_confidence": 64.898, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.36, "rotation_up": 35.15, "upward_expansion": 20.95, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 19.02, "downward_expansion": 54.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.583333, 12.336, 12.41619, 12.864151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.52, "trend_reference": 13.473667, "distance_from_trend": -0.07078, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.738397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.294187, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.851833, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.156334, "excess_performance": -0.276756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07078, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071315, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.294187, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00698, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066982, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156334, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.813227, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127600, "relative_activity": 1.648792, "balance": 1.813227, "dry_up": 0.540445, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038646, "annualized_volatility": 0.199357, "from_high_reference": -0.306371, "from_low_reference": 0.096322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.473667, "fair_value_reference": 17.738397, "structural_low": 11.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.00575, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.014545, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.116719, "worst_return": -0.061526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.031066, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.040245, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.131398, "worst_return": -0.095075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009641, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03173, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.057954, "worst_return": -0.154425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 113195.0, "trend": 13.774667, "fair_value": 17.8675, "relative_strength": -27.588072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.334268, "energy": 64.241477, "activity_lines": [ 11.892667, 12.003455, 12.588, 13.133892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.57, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 91355.0, "trend": 13.692333, "fair_value": 17.836218, "relative_strength": -23.831168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.815953, "energy": 49.312982, "activity_lines": [ 12.134667, 12.073636, 12.523429, 13.056172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.49, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 85370.0, "trend": 13.609, "fair_value": 17.806026, "relative_strength": -23.687818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.384655, "energy": 34.229995, "activity_lines": [ 12.315333, 12.132364, 12.462238, 12.978602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.86, "volume": 36400, "typical_volume": 71765.0, "trend": 13.545, "fair_value": 17.775256, "relative_strength": -20.17692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.389585, "energy": 30.237397, "activity_lines": [ 12.548, 12.264727, 12.449905, 12.93028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.52, "volume": 127600, "typical_volume": 77390.0, "trend": 13.473667, "fair_value": 17.738397, "relative_strength": -23.851833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.133784, "energy": 29.093803, "activity_lines": [ 12.583333, 12.336, 12.41619, 12.864151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }